英文标题：
《Self-organization and phase transition in financial markets with
  multiple choices》
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作者：
Li-Xin Zhong, Wen-Juan Xu, Ping Huang, Chen-Yang Zhong, Tian Qiu
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最新提交年份：
2014
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英文摘要：
  Market confidence is essential for successful investing. By incorporating multi-market into the evolutionary minority game, we investigate the effects of investor beliefs on the evolution of collective behaviors and asset prices. When there exists another investment opportunity, market confidence, including overconfidence and under-confidence, is not always good or bad for investment. The roles of market confidence is closely related to market impact. For low market impact, overconfidence in a particular asset makes an investor become insensitive to losses and a delayed strategy adjustment leads to a decline in wealth, and thereafter, one\'s runaway from the market. For high market impact, under-confidence in a particular asset makes an investor over-sensitive to losses and one\'s too frequent strategy adjustment leads to a large fluctuation in asset prices, and thereafter, a decrease in the number of agents. At an intermediate market impact, the phase transition occurs. No matter what the market impact is, an equilibrium between different markets exists, which is reflected in the occurrence of similar price fluctuations in different markets. A theoretical analysis indicates that such an equilibrium results from the coupled effects of strategy updating and shift in investment. The runaway of the agents trading a specific asset will lead to a decline in the asset price volatility and such a decline will be inhibited by the clustering of the strategies. A uniform strategy distribution will lead to a large fluctuation in asset prices and such a fluctuation will be suppressed by the decrease in the number of agents in the market. A functional relationship between the price fluctuations and the numbers of agents is found.
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中文摘要：
市场信心对成功的投资至关重要。通过将多市场纳入演化少数人博弈，我们研究了投资者信念对集体行为和资产价格演化的影响。当存在另一个投资机会时，市场信心，包括过度自信和信心不足，并不总是对投资有利或不利。市场信心的作用与市场影响密切相关。对于低市场影响而言，对特定资产的过度自信会使投资者对损失变得不敏感，延迟的战略调整会导致财富下降，然后逃离市场。对于高市场影响，对特定资产的信心不足会使投资者对损失过于敏感，而过于频繁的策略调整会导致资产价格的大幅波动，进而导致代理人数量的减少。在中等市场影响下，会发生相变。无论市场影响如何，不同市场之间都存在一种均衡，这反映在不同市场出现类似的价格波动上。理论分析表明，这种均衡是战略更新和投资转移的耦合效应的结果。交易特定资产的代理人的失控将导致资产价格波动性的下降，这种下降将受到策略集群的抑制。一个统一的策略分布将导致资产价格的大幅波动，这种波动将被市场中代理人数量的减少所抑制。发现价格波动与代理人数量之间存在函数关系。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Trading and Market Microstructure        交易与市场微观结构
分类描述：Market microstructure, liquidity, exchange and auction design, automated trading, agent-based modeling and market-making
市场微观结构，流动性，交易和拍卖设计，自动化交易，基于代理的建模和做市
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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