英文标题：
《A Creepy World》
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作者：
Didier Sornette and Peter Cauwels
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最新提交年份：
2014
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英文摘要：
  Using the mechanics of creep in material sciences as a metaphor, we present a general framework to understand the evolution of financial, economic and social systems and to construct scenarios for the future. In a nutshell, highly non-linear out-of-equilibrium systems subjected to exogenous perturbations tend to exhibit a long phase of slow apparent stable evolution, which are nothing but slow maturations towards instabilities, failures and changes of regimes. With examples from history where a small event had a cataclysmic consequence, we propose a novel view of the current state of the world via the logical scenarios that derive, avoiding the traps of an illusionary stability and simple linear extrapolation. The endogenous scenarios are \"muddling along\", \"managing through\" and \"blood red abyss\". The exogenous scenarios are \"painful adjustment\" and \"golden east\".
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中文摘要：
以材料科学中的蠕变力学为隐喻，我们提出了一个总体框架，以理解金融、经济和社会系统的演变，并构建未来的情景。简言之，受到外部扰动的高度非线性非平衡系统往往表现出一个缓慢的表观稳定演化的长阶段，这只不过是向不稳定、失败和制度变迁的缓慢成熟。通过历史上一个小事件带来灾难性后果的例子，我们提出了一种通过逻辑场景衍生的世界现状的新观点，避免了幻觉稳定性和简单线性外推的陷阱。内生情景包括“得过且过”、“成功应对”和“血红深渊”。外生情景是“痛苦的调整”和“金色东方”。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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