英文标题:
《Microeconomic Structure determines Macroeconomic Dynamics. Aoki defeats
the Representative Agent》
---
作者:
Sorin Solomon and Natasa Golo
---
最新提交年份:
2014
---
英文摘要:
Masanao Aoki developed a new methodology for a basic problem of economics: deducing rigorously the macroeconomic dynamics as emerging from the interactions of many individual agents. This includes deduction of the fractal / intermittent fluctuations of macroeconomic quantities from the granularity of the mezo-economic collective objects (large individual wealth, highly productive geographical locations, emergent technologies, emergent economic sectors) in which the micro-economic agents self-organize. In particular, we present some theoretical predictions, which also met extensive validation from empirical data in a wide range of systems: - The fractal Levy exponent of the stock market index fluctuations equals the Pareto exponent of the investors wealth distribution. The origin of the macroeconomic dynamics is therefore found in the granularity induced by the wealth / capital of the wealthiest investors. - Economic cycles consist of a Schumpeter \'creative destruction\' pattern whereby the maxima are cusp-shaped while the minima are smooth. In between the cusps, the cycle consists of the sum of 2 \'crossing exponentials\': one decaying and the other increasing. This unification within the same theoretical framework of short term market fluctuations and long term economic cycles offers the perspective of a genuine conceptual synthesis between micro- and macroeconomics. Joining another giant of contemporary science - Phil Anderson - Aoki emphasized the role of rare, large fluctuations in the emergence of macroeconomic phenomena out of microscopic interactions and in particular their non self-averaging, in the language of statistical physics. In this light, we present a simple stochastic multi-sector growth model.
---
中文摘要:
青木正男(Masanao Aoki)为经济学的一个基本问题开发了一种新的方法论:严格推导出许多个体主体相互作用产生的宏观经济动态。这包括从微观经济主体自组织的mezo经济集体对象(巨大的个人财富、高生产率的地理位置、新兴技术、新兴经济部门)的粒度中推断宏观经济量的分形/间歇性波动。特别是,我们提出了一些理论预测,这些预测也得到了广泛系统经验数据的广泛验证:-股市指数波动的分形列维指数等于投资者财富分布的帕累托指数。因此,宏观经济动态的根源在于最富有投资者的财富/资本所导致的粒度。-经济周期由熊彼特的“创造性破坏”模式组成,其中最大值是尖点形状,而最小值是平滑的。在尖点之间,周期由两个“交叉指数”之和组成:一个衰减,另一个增加。这种在短期市场波动和长期经济周期的相同理论框架内的统一,提供了微观经济学和宏观经济学之间真正概念综合的视角。与当代科学的另一个巨人菲尔·安德森(Phil Anderson)一起,青木(Aoki)强调了宏观经济现象在微观相互作用中出现的罕见、巨大波动的作用,特别是在统计物理语言中,宏观经济现象的非自平均性。因此,我们提出了一个简单的随机多部门增长模型。
---
分类信息:
一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:General Finance 一般财务
分类描述:Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
--
一级分类:Physics 物理学
二级分类:Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述:Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体(人类或其他)的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统(如能源网、运输网络)的物理和工程。
--
一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Statistical Finance 统计金融
分类描述:Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
--
---
PDF下载:
-->