英文标题：
《Manipulating decision making of typical agents》
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作者：
V.I. Yukalov and D. Sornette
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最新提交年份：
2014
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英文摘要：
  We investigate how the choice of decision makers can be varied under the presence of risk and uncertainty. Our analysis is based on the approach we have previously applied to individual decision makers, which we now generalize to the case of decision makers that are members of a society. The approach employs the mathematical techniques that are common in quantum theory, justifying our naming as Quantum Decision Theory. However, we do not assume that decision makers are quantum objects. The techniques of quantum theory are needed only for defining the prospect probabilities taking into account such hidden variables as behavioral biases and other subconscious feelings. The approach describes an agent\'s choice as a probabilistic event occurring with a probability that is the sum of a utility factor and of an attraction factor. The attraction factor embodies subjective and unconscious dimensions in the mind of the decision maker. We show that the typical aggregate amplitude of the attraction factor is $1/4$, and it can be either positive or negative depending on the relative attraction of the competing choices. The most efficient way of varying the decision makers choice is realized by influencing the attraction factor. This can be done in two ways. One method is to arrange in a special manner the payoff weights, which induces the required changes of the values of attraction factors. We show that a slight variation of the payoff weights can invert the sign of the attraction factors and reverse the decision preferences, even when the prospect utilities remain unchanged. The second method of influencing the decision makers choice is by providing information to decision makers. The methods of influencing decision making are illustrated by several experiments, whose outcomes are compared quantitatively with the predictions of our approach.
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中文摘要：
我们研究了在存在风险和不确定性的情况下，决策者的选择是如何变化的。我们的分析基于我们之前应用于个体决策者的方法，现在我们将其推广到社会成员的决策者的情况。该方法采用了量子理论中常见的数学技术，证明了我们命名为量子决策理论的合理性。然而，我们并不认为决策者是量子对象。考虑到行为偏差和其他潜意识感受等隐藏变量，量子理论的技术仅用于定义前景概率。该方法将代理人的选择描述为一个概率事件，其发生概率为效用因子和吸引因子之和。吸引力因素体现了决策者头脑中的主观和无意识层面。我们发现，吸引因子的典型总振幅为$1/4$，它可以是正的，也可以是负的，这取决于竞争选择的相对吸引力。改变决策者选择的最有效方法是通过影响吸引因素来实现。这可以通过两种方式实现。一种方法是以一种特殊的方式安排支付权重，这会导致吸引因子的值发生所需的变化。我们发现，即使前景效用保持不变，支付权重的微小变化也可以反转吸引因子的符号，并反转决策偏好。影响决策者选择的第二种方法是向决策者提供信息。通过几个实验说明了影响决策的方法，这些实验的结果与我们方法的预测进行了定量比较。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Quantum Physics        量子物理学
分类描述：Description coming soon
描述即将到来
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