英文标题：
《Many-to-one contagion of economic growth rate across trade credit
  network of firms》
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作者：
Natasa Golo, Guy Kelman, David S. Bree, Leanne Usher, Marco Lamieri
  and Sorin Solomon
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最新提交年份：
2015
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英文摘要：
  We propose a novel approach and an empirical procedure to test direct contagion of growth rate in a trade credit network of firms. Our hypotheses are that the use of trade credit contributes to contagion (from many customers to a single supplier - \"many to one\" contagion) and amplification (through their interaction with the macrocopic variables, such as interest rate) of growth rate. In this paper we test the contagion hypothesis, measuring empirically the mesoscopic \"many-to-one\" effect. The effect of amplification has been dealt with in another paper.   Our empirical analysis is based on the delayed payments between trading partners across many different industrial sectors, intermediated by a large Italian bank during the year 2007. The data is used to create a weighted and directed trade credit network. Assuming that the linkages are static, we look at the dynamics of the nodes/firms. On the ratio of the 2007 trade credit in Sales and Purchases items on the profit and loss statements, we estimate the trade credit in 2006 and 2008.   Applying the \"many to one\" approach we compare such predicted growth of trade (demand) aggregated per supplier, and compare it with the real growth of Sales of the supplier. We analyze the correlation of these two growth rates over two yearly periods, 2007/2006 and 2008/2007, and in this way we test our contagion hypotheses. We could not find strong correlations between the predicted and the actual growth rates. We provide an evidence of contagion only in restricted sub-groups of our network, and not in the whole network. We do find a strong macroscopic effect of the crisis, indicated by a coincident negative drift in the growth of sales of nearly all the firms in our sample.
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中文摘要：
我们提出了一种新的方法和实证程序来测试企业贸易信贷网络中增长率的直接传染。我们的假设是，贸易信贷的使用有助于增长率的传染（从许多客户到单一供应商——“多对一”传染）和放大（通过它们与宏观变量的相互作用，如利率）。在本文中，我们检验了传染假说，从经验上衡量了介观的“多对一”效应。放大效应已在另一篇论文中讨论过。我们的实证分析基于2007年意大利一家大型银行在许多不同行业的贸易伙伴之间的延迟付款。这些数据用于创建一个加权和定向的贸易信贷网络。假设这些联系是静态的，我们研究节点/企业的动态。根据损益表中2007年的贸易信用占销售和采购项目的比率，我们估计了2006年和2008年的贸易信用。应用“多对一”方法，我们将每个供应商的贸易（需求）预测增长进行比较，并将其与供应商销售额的实际增长进行比较。我们分析了2007/2006年和2008/2007年这两个年度期间这两个增长率的相关性，并通过这种方式检验了我们的传染假说。我们无法在预测增长率和实际增长率之间找到强相关性。我们只在我们网络的有限子群体中提供传染证据，而不是在整个网络中。我们确实发现了这场危机的强大宏观影响，我们样本中几乎所有公司的销售增长都出现了同步的负漂移。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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