英文标题：
《Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design
  sustainability transitions policy》
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作者：
J.-F. Mercure, H. Pollitt, A. M. Bassi, J. E Vi\\~nuales and N. R.
  Edwards
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最新提交年份：
2016
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英文摘要：
  This article proposes a fundamental methodological shift in the modelling of policy interventions for sustainability transitions in order to account for complexity (e.g. self-reinforcing mechanism arising from multi-agent interactions) and agent heterogeneity (e.g. differences in consumer and investment behaviour). We first characterise the uncertainty faced by climate policy-makers and its implications for investment decision-makers. We then identify five shortcomings in the equilibrium and optimisation-based approaches most frequently used to inform sustainability policy: (i) their normative, optimisation-based nature, (ii) their unrealistic reliance on the full-rationality of agents, (iii) their inability to account for mutual influences among agents and capture related self-reinforcing (positive feedback) processes, (iv) their inability to represent multiple solutions and path-dependency, and (v) their inability to properly account for agent heterogeneity. The aim of this article is to introduce an alternative modelling approach based on complexity dynamics and agent heterogeneity, and explore its use in four key areas of sustainability policy, namely (1) technology adoption and diffusion, (2) macroeconomic impacts of low-carbon policies, (3) interactions between the socio-economic system and the natural environment, and (4) the anticipation of policy outcomes. The practical relevance of the proposed methodology is discussed by reference to four applications: the diffusion of transport technology, the impact of low-carbon investment on income and employment, the management of cascading uncertainties, and the cross-sectoral impact of biofuels policies. The article calls for a fundamental methodological shift aligning the modelling of the socio-economic system with that of the climatic system, for a combined and realistic understanding of the impact of sustainability policies.
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中文摘要：
本文提出了可持续性转型政策干预建模的基本方法转变，以解释复杂性（如多主体互动产生的自我强化机制）和主体异质性（如消费者和投资行为的差异）。我们首先描述了气候政策制定者面临的不确定性及其对投资决策者的影响。然后，我们确定了在可持续发展政策中最常用的基于均衡和优化的方法中的五个缺点：（i）它们的规范性、基于优化的性质，（ii）它们对代理人的充分理性的不切实际的依赖，（iii）它们无法考虑代理人之间的相互影响并捕获相关的自我强化（积极反馈）过程，（iv）无法表示多个解决方案和路径依赖性，以及（v）无法正确解释代理异构性。本文旨在介绍一种基于复杂性动力学和主体异质性的替代建模方法，并探讨其在可持续发展政策的四个关键领域中的应用，即（1）技术采用和扩散，（2）低碳政策的宏观经济影响，（3）社会经济系统与自然环境之间的相互作用，（4）对政策结果的预期。通过参考四个应用，讨论了拟议方法的实际相关性：运输技术的扩散、低碳投资对收入和就业的影响、级联不确定性的管理以及生物燃料政策的跨部门影响。这篇文章呼吁从根本上改变方法论，使社会经济系统的建模与气候系统的建模保持一致，以便对可持续性政策的影响有一个综合和现实的理解。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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