经管之家App
让优质教育人人可得
立即打开
Australia GDP Falls Most Since 1991
From Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-01/adp-estimates-u-s-companies-added-38-000-employees-in-may.html
Australia’s economy shrank in the first quarter by the most in 20 years as floods hurt exports, even as stronger business investment underscored the central bank’s forecast for a rebound in the second half of the year.
Gross domestic product fell 1.2 percent from the previous three months, when it rose a revised 0.8 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. Exports slumped 8.7 percent, subtracting 2.1 percentage points from GDP growth, today’s report showed, while machinery and equipment spending jumped 6 percent, adding 0.4 point.
The nation’s dollar rose after the report showed the contraction was smaller than a drop of as much as 2 percent that economists including Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia Pty had forecast. While Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens has held interest rates at 4.75 percent for the past five meetings to help Queensland state recover, investors today boosted bets he’ll raise borrowing costs by August.
“The market was braced for a really big negative so it’s a bit of a relief,” said Su-Lin Ong, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney. “The report looks mostly to be reflecting the impact of the Queensland floods on exports; outside of exports, domestic demand is actually pretty resilient.”
RBA Outlook
The local currency rose to as high as $1.0752 before trading at $1.0732 at 4:35 p.m. in Sydney from $1.0672 yesterday in New York. The RBA has pledged to look past data distorted by the natural disasters and said rates will need to rise “at some point” to contain inflation.
Household spending, which accounts for 55 percent of GDP, increased 0.6 percent in the first quarter, adding 0.3 percentage point to growth, today’s report showed. Dwellings rose 4.6 percent, adding 0.3 point.
Compared with a year earlier, the economy expanded 1 percent in the first quarter, today’s report showed, matching economists’ median forecast.
Traders bet there’s a 12 percent chance Stevens will boost the benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 5 percent at a meeting June 7, a 32 percent chance in July and 50 percent in August, interbank cash-rate futures showed.
The quarterly decline was the biggest drop since Australia’s last recession in 1991 and compared with the median of 25 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey for a 1.1 percent fall in GDP.
Regional Slowdown
Global growth, including the economies of some of Australia’s biggest trading partners, shows signs of weakening.
China’s manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in nine months in May, a survey of companies released today showed. India’s growth in three months to March 31 was the weakest in five quarters, and Japan’s industrial production rose less than economists forecast in April, reports showed this week. Those three countries accounted for 51 percent of Australia’s total exports so far this year.
Today’s GDP data showed Australia’s household savings ratio climbed to 11.5 percent from 9.7 percent in the previous quarter, the highest level since 2009. Insurance payouts following the January floods contributed to the rise, said Bill Evans, Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC)’s chief economist.
The report, coupled with Australia’s government budget released last month that aims to cool inflation and return to a surplus by 2013, will make it difficult for the RBA to raise rates next week, economists said. “However, the RBA is almost certain to maintain the strong hawkish rhetoric to ensure that markets and the community ‘have been warned’.” Evans said.
Aussie’s Advance
The nation’s currency has risen 29 percent in the past year as companies including BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) increase hiring to meet Chinese and Indian demand for iron ore and coal, pushing unemployment below 5 percent.
Driving the economy is mining investment the government estimates will be A$76 billion ($82 billion) next fiscal year. BHP, the world’s biggest mining company, is expanding its iron ore operations in Western Australia State’s Pilbara region.
The local dollar reached $1.1012 on May 2, the highest level since it was freely floated in 1983. The currency’s strength is hurting exporters including Henderson, Western Australia-based shipbuilder Austal Ltd. (ASB)
The RBA’s benchmark interest rate of 4.75 percent is the developed world’s highest, raising debt payments for homeowners. Myer Holdings Ltd. (MYR) and David Jones Ltd. (DJS), Australia’s biggest department store chains, reported declines in quarterly sales on May 11.
Rebound Predicted
In a quarterly review released last month, the RBA forecast growth will be 4.25 percent this year, unchanged from its February estimate. Consumer prices will rise 3.25 percent over the period, from a previous prediction of 3 percent, and core inflation will quicken to 3 percent from 2.75 percent, it said.
Disrupting trade were floods in Queensland in January that Prime Minister Julia Gillard called the nation’s most expensive natural disaster. Queensland produces 80 percent of steel-making coal exports from Australia, the world’s biggest supplier, and grows more than 30 percent of the country’s fruit and vegetables.
The impact was reflected in the GDP breakdown in states at the center of Australia’s biggest resources boom. Queensland’s economy contracted 0.6 percent in the three months through March from the previous quarter, while Western Australia’s GDP surged 3.2 percent.
Expanding resource projects helped Australia post record employment growth last year before hiring cooled in the first four months of 2011. Still, the number of unemployed Australians in April fell to the lowest level since January 2009.
“The economy will rebound in the second quarter, but it will take some time before the coal industry, in particular, is back up to full speed,” said Stephen Walters, chief economist for Australia at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) in Sydney.
Barclays's Stacey Interview on Australia Economy
June 1 (Bloomberg) -- Gavin Stacey, an interest-rate strategist at Barclays Plc. in Sydney, talks about the outlook for the Australia's economy and central bank monetary policy. Australia’s economy shrank in the first quarter by the most in 20 years as floods hurt exports, even as stronger business investment underscored the central bank’s forecast for a rebound in the second half of the year. Stacey speaks with Linzie Janis on Bloomberg Television's "Global Connection." (Source: Bloomberg)
BofA's Rothfield Interview on Australia Economy
June 1 (Bloomberg) -- John Rothfield, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Sydney, talks about Australia's economy and central bank monetary policy. Australia’s economy shrank in the first quarter by the most in 20 years after flooded coal mines, railways and farmland hurt exports. Rothfield speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move Asia." (Source: Bloomberg)
HSBC's Bloxham on Australia, N.Z. Economies, May 30
May 30 (Bloomberg) -- Paul Bloxham, Sydney-based chief economist for Australia and New Zealand at HSBC Holdings Plc, talks about the outlook for the countries' economies and central banks' monetary policies. Natural disasters in Australia probably cut more than 1 percentage point from economic growth in the first quarter, Treasurer Wayne Swan said ahead of a government report this week on gross domestic product. Bloxham speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move Asia." (Source: Bloomberg)
。Global growth, including the economies of some of Australia’s biggest trading partners, shows signs of weakening. 全球增长，包括一些澳大利亚最大贸易伙伴的经济，都显示了减弱的迹象。
China’s manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in nine months in May, a survey of companies released today showed.一项公司调查今天发布显示，今年五月是中国制造业增长在过去九个月里最慢 的。India’s growth in three months to March 31 was the weakest in five quarters, 到今年3月31日的三个月是印过去5个季度里增长最慢的。and Japan’s industrial production rose less than economists forecast in April, reports showed this week. 同时，本周报告显示，4月份日本工业产品的上涨小于经济学家们的预测。Those three countries accounted for 51 percent of Australia’s total exports so far this year. 到今年目前为止，这个三个国家占了澳大利亚总出口的51%。
in my opinion,most countries need to undergo the bad development recently.
ps：其实也就1000字文章，但是这么密密麻麻，显得好多的。建议编辑一下了，字小不好看了。thanks for your share！
chinalin2002 发表于 2011-6-2 00:16
It is my pleasure to select reading materials for Follow Me. I realize it is really tough to select a good topic and it really takes much time, therefore, thank eros_zz very much for her/his long-term thoughtful and considerable work. Also thanks are given to bengdi1986 for his commencement of the new version of Follow Me. Hope that we will learn something and improve our English through attending Follow Me. Enjoy it!
Australia GDP Falls Most Since 1991
By Michael Heath
From Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-01/adp-estimates-u-s-companies-added-38-000-employees-in-may.html
Australia’s economy shrank in the first quarter by the most in 20 years as floods hurt exports, even as stronger business investment underscored the central bank’s forecast for a rebound in the second half of the year.
Gross domestic product fell 1.2 percent from the previous three months, when it rose a revised 0.8 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. Exports slumped 8.7 percent, subtracting 2.1 percentage points from GDP growth, today’s report showed, while machinery and equipment spending jumped 6 percent, adding 0.4 point.
The nation’s dollar rose after the report showed the contraction was smaller than a drop of as much as 2 percent that economists including Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia Pty had forecast. While Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens has held interest rates at 4.75 percent for the past five meetings to help Queensland state recover, investors today boosted bets he’ll raise borrowing costs by August.
“The market was braced for a really big negative so it’s a bit of a relief,” said Su-Lin Ong, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney. “The report looks mostly to be reflecting the impact of the Queensland floods on exports; outside of exports, domestic demand is actually pretty resilient.”
RBA Outlook
The local currency rose to as high as $1.0752 before trading at $1.0732 at 4:35 p.m. in Sydney from $1.0672 yesterday in New York. The RBA has pledged to look past data distorted by the natural disasters and said rates will need to rise “at some point” to contain inflation.
Household spending, which accounts for 55 percent of GDP, increased 0.6 percent in the first quarter, adding 0.3 percentage point to growth, today’s report showed. Dwellings rose 4.6 percent, adding 0.3 point.
Compared with a year earlier, the economy expanded 1 percent in the first quarter, today’s report showed, matching economists’ median forecast.
Traders bet there’s a 12 percent chance Stevens will boost the benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 5 percent at a meeting June 7, a 32 percent chance in July and 50 percent in August, interbank cash-rate futures showed.
The quarterly decline was the biggest drop since Australia’s last recession in 1991 and compared with the median of 25 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey for a 1.1 percent fall in GDP.
Regional Slowdown
Global growth, including the economies of some of Australia’s biggest trading partners, shows signs of weakening.
China’s manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in nine months in May, a survey of companies released today showed. India’s growth in three months to March 31 was the weakest in five quarters, and Japan’s industrial production rose less than economists forecast in April, reports showed this week. Those three countries accounted for 51 percent of Australia’s total exports so far this year.
Today’s GDP data showed Australia’s household savings ratio climbed to 11.5 percent from 9.7 percent in the previous quarter, the highest level since 2009. Insurance payouts following the January floods contributed to the rise, said Bill Evans, Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC)’s chief economist.
The report, coupled with Australia’s government budget released last month that aims to cool inflation and return to a surplus by 2013, will make it difficult for the RBA to raise rates next week, economists said. “However, the RBA is almost certain to maintain the strong hawkish rhetoric to ensure that markets and the community ‘have been warned’.” Evans said.
扫码加好友，拉您进群
全部版块
我的主页
收藏
