英文共三页的PDF格式小报告，

在市场对中国是否重蹈日元升值泡沫的担忧背景下，

这篇小报告思路无疑是值得参考。

 

Ⅰ Striking parallels between China today and Japan in the late 1980s

Strong loan growth.

Low/negative interest rates

Frothy asset prices.

Undervalued exchange rate, massive external account
surplus and rapid accumulation of foreign reserves.

Excessive rate of fixed investment.

Low core CPI.

ⅠⅠBut there are also differences

China is a much larger country

The Chinese economy remains largely protected from sharp swings in portfolio investments, which
reduces the risk of volatility from global financial markets.

Larger disparity in China’s urban-rural divide gives room for reallocation of resources.

Large FDI and JV presence in China mitigates risks.

 

ⅠⅠⅠWhy China may avoid a Japan-style downturn

Beware of the pitfalls

China should still beckon

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[此贴子已经被作者于2007-12-6 15:37:28编辑过]