In stock chart analysis the closest thing to X-Ray vision is Relative Strength. Often Relative Strength provides us with early price direction clues. Generally, when Relative Strength (RS) is in a rising trend and price is in a rising trend, this trend will persist. We define a trend as higher highs and higher lows, and above a rising long term moving average. When the trend of price and RS diverge from each other the validity of the price trend comes into question. Let’s look at some examples.在股市图表分析中,相对强弱最类似于医疗检测中的X射线。相对强弱经常为我们提供早期的价格方向线索。通常,当相对强弱(RS)处于上升趋势并且价格处于上升趋势时,该趋势将持续。我们将趋势定义为更高的高点和更高的低点,以及高于上升的长期移动平均线的趋势。当价格趋势与RS相互背离时,价格趋势的有效性就需要质疑了。让我们看一些例子。


This very long term rising trend for the Software Industry Group ($DJUSSW) is a uniquely bullish example. Typically, when a Reaccumulation structure interrupts a long term uptrend, the RS becomes weak. During the 2015-16 Reaccumulation of $DJUSSW the Relative Strength keeps rising, which is a very bullish indication. The uptrend that follows the Reaccumulation is very strong. RS accelerates which confirms to institutions that these stocks should be held and the portfolio allocation to this group be increased during the uptrend.
对$ DJUSSW而言,这是一个独特的看涨案例。通常,长期上升趋势中出现当再吸筹结构时,RS会变弱。在$ DJUSSW的2015-16年再吸筹期间,相对强弱一直在上升,这是一个非常看涨的迹象。再吸筹之后的上升趋势非常强劲。RS加速,对机构来说,就是在确认应该持有这些股票,并且在上升趋势中增加对该板块的投资组合。


Here is a more typical picture as a Reaccumulation forms over two years in Specialty Retail ($DJUSRS). The RS line is confirmed downward while the price index is tracing out a seeming Reaccumulation. The downward trend channel and the falling moving average line illustrate that institutions are being punished for owning these stocks. Meanwhile the Composite Operator (C.O.) appears to be Accumulating shares for a major bull campaign. The C.O. typically buys stock under the cover of weak Relative Strength which discourages institutions and the public. As Wyckoffians, our job is to patiently wait for the conclusion of Reaccumulation when the stocks in the industry group become active. This would be on the strength of price following the Last Point of Support (LPS). Note how this coincides with an oversold thrust under the RS trend channel and a strong RS rally into the end of 2017. On the price chart the LPS, the Test, and the Back Up (BU) are excellent buy points (with Stops just below those price lows). The steady rise of the RS confirms that Specialty Retail has been Absorbed over the prior two years and is held by very strong hands. We conclude that a major uptrend is underway.
$ DJUSRS是另一典型案例,这是两年的再吸筹形态。RS线回落向下,而指数价格看似正在再吸筹。趋势通道的下降和均线下倾表明,机构因拥有这些股票而面临亏损。同时,CO似乎在为大型牛市活动吸筹股票。CO常会在相对强弱下行掩护下悄悄购入股票,此时机构和公众因市场弱势买入不积极。威科夫交易者认为,在板块股票开始变得活跃之时耐心等待再吸筹的确认。这将取决于LPS之后的SOS。请注意,RS在趋势通道下轨的超卖突破然后立即返回通道,以及2017年底的强劲RS反弹。在价格图表上,LPS,ST和BU是绝佳的买入点(止损位于买点下方,紧止损)。RS的稳步上涨表明,$ DJUSRS在过去两年已被吸收,股票已被CO完全控制。结论,主要的上涨趋势正在进行中。


An Upside Non-Confirmation (UNC) forms at the Upthrust (UT) when the RS makes a lower peak. Price is making a new high while the RS is not, and this is a warning. When the UT fails the RS becomes very weak. Distribution in Durable Household Products ($DJUSHD) is now evident. At the Last Point of Supply (LPSY) the RS line is in a free fall. Relative Strength did a valuable job of warning and confirming the Distribution in this industry group.
当RS产生次高点(lower high)时,在UT处会形成一个上行未确认(UNC)。价格正在创下新高,而RS却没有,这是一个警告。当UT出现后(向上突破失败),RS变得非常弱势。$ DJUSHD的派发特征明显。在LPSY处,RS曲线出现自由落体式的表现。相对强弱对于该板块处于派发阶段的警告和确认提供了非常有价值的线索。


U.S. Furnishings ($DJUSFH) Relative Strength has been making lower peaks since 2016. Meanwhile the price chart has been making minor new highs. Throughout 2017 Relative Strength has been in a narrow declining channel. Weakness in late January for the broad market produces a very sharp decline in $DJUSFH as institutions sell this group aggressively. The declining RS accelerates lower on this selling. This is a subtle, but excellent, example of the power of Relative Strength studies. RS was not confirming the higher prices for $DJUSFH. Institutions used this group as a source of funds as they liquidated holdings and rotated in to better performing industry groups.
自2016年以来,$ DJUSFH的相对强弱高点不断降低。与此同时,价格走势图也创出了局部新高。在整个2017年,相对强弱一直处于狭窄的下降通道中。1月下旬,$DJUSFH急剧下跌,因为机构积极地派发。下降的RS加速了这种卖盘。这是相对强弱极好的案例研究。RS并未确认$ DJUSFH的新高。机构清算其在该板块所持的股份并转向业绩更好的板块行业。
Some broad conclusions:
◆ Strong Relative Strength stocks and industry groups will tend to have their price trends persist. The best uptrending RS groups prior to the recent stock market weakness were most likely to begin rallying and making new price highs before less strong groups.
◆ Long term divergences between price and RS trends often mean big trend changes are looming. The strongest condition is when price and RS uptrends are confirming each other. The weakest condition is when price and RS downtrends are confirming each other.
◆ The Composite Operator will typically Accumulate (Reaccumulate) shares of stock when RS is weak. Wyckoffians can (and should) wait for the end of the Accumulation process when the stock becomes surprisingly strong (Phases C & D) and RS turns up, and then commit to the new uptrend. This is potentially a fresh new uptrend that has a long life ahead.
Relative Strength is like X-Ray vision for Wyckoffians. It very often provides a clue about the emerging new direction of the price trend. And it keeps us in the trend for the majority of the move.
一些重要的结论:
◆ 相对强弱表现强势的股票和板块将倾向于保持其价格趋势。在近期股市弱势时,上升趋势最好的RS组最有可能率先反弹,并先于次强板块创新高。
◆ 价格和RS趋势之间的长期背离通常意味着趋势即将出现。最强的信息指示是价格和RS上升趋势相互确认。最弱的信息指示是价格和RS下降趋势相互确认。
◆ 当RS弱势时,CO通常会吸筹(再吸筹)股票。当股票变得异常强劲时(阶段C和D)并且RS上涨时,威科夫交易者可以(并且应该)等待吸筹过程的结束,然后在新一轮的上涨趋势启动之时躬身入局。这可能是一个新的上升趋势,而且有相当唱的上涨持续期。
相对强弱就像威科夫交易者眼中的X射线。RS经常提供有关价格趋势新方向的线索。这使我们在大多数行动中都处于趋势中,顺势而为。
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