The Quarterly Journal of Economics，2022年第四季刊

1．Systemic Discrimination Among Large U.S. Employers

美国大型雇主之间的系统性歧视

[url=]Patrick Kline[/url], [url=]Evan K Rose[/url], [url=]Christopher RWalters[/url]

We study the results of a massivenationwide correspondence experiment sending more than 83,000 fictitiousapplications with randomized characteristics to geographically dispersed jobsposted by 108 of the largest U.S. employers. Distinctively Black names reducethe probability of employer contact by 2.1 percentage points relative todistinctively white names. The magnitude of this racial gap in contact ratesdiffers substantially across firms, exhibiting a between-company standarddeviation of 1.9 percentage points. Despite an insignificant average gap incontact rates between male and female applicants, we find a between-companystandard deviation in gender contact gaps of 2.7 percentage points, revealingthat some firms favor male applicants and others favor women. Company-specificracial contact gaps are temporally and spatially persistent, and negativelycorrelated with firm profitability, federal contractor status, and a measure ofrecruiting centralization. Discrimination exhibits little geographicaldispersion, but two-digit industry explains roughly half of the cross-firmvariation in both racial and gender contact gaps. Contact gaps are highlyconcentrated in particular companies, with firms in the top quintile of racialdiscrimination responsible for nearly half of lost contacts to Black applicantsin the experiment. Controlling false discovery rates to the 5% level, 23companies are found to discriminate against Black applicants. Our findingsestablish that discrimination against distinctively Black names is concentratedamong a select set of large employers, many of which can be identified withhigh confidence using large-scale inference methods.

我们研究了一项大规模的全国性通信实验的结果，该实验将超过83，000份具有随机特征的虚构申请发送到108个美国最大雇主发布的地理上分散的工作。与独特的白人名字相比，独特的黑人名字将雇主接触的可能性降低了2.1个百分点。这种接触率的种族差距在公司之间差异很大，显示出1.9个百分点的公司间标准差。尽管男性和女性申请人之间的平均接触率差距微不足道，但我们发现性别接触差距的公司间标准差为2.7个百分点，这表明一些公司偏爱男性求职者，而另一些公司偏爱女性。公司特定的种族联系差距在时间和空间上是持久的，并且与公司盈利能力、联邦承包商地位和招聘集中化措施呈负相关。歧视在地理上几乎没有分散性，但两位数的行业解释了种族和性别接触差距的跨公司差异的大约一半。联系差距高度集中在特定的公司，在种族歧视方面排名前五分之一的公司占实验中与黑人申请人失去联系的近一半。将虚假发现率控制在5%的水平，发现23家公司歧视黑人申请人。我们的研究结果表明，对黑人名字的歧视集中在一组选定的大型雇主中，其中许多雇主可以使用大规模推理方法高置信度地识别。

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac024

2．Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate ChangeAccounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits  

评估气候变化对全球死亡率的影响 考虑适应成本和收益

[url=]TammaCarleton[/url], [url=]Amir Jina[/url], [url=]Michael Delgado[/url], [url=]MichaelGreenstone[/url], [url=]Trevor Houser[/url], [url=]Solomon Hsiang[/url], [url=]AndrewHultgren[/url], [url=]Robert E Kopp[/url], [url=]Kelly E McCusker[/url], [url=]Ishan Nath[/url]

Using 40 countries’ subnational data, weestimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships and extrapolate themto countries without data today and into a future with climate change. Weuncover a U-shaped relationship where extreme cold and hot temperaturesincrease mortality rates, especially for the elderly. Critically, thisrelationship is flattened by higher incomes and adaptation to local climate.Using a revealed-preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs, weestimate that the mean global increase in mortality risk due to climate change,accounting for adaptation benefits and costs, is valued at roughly 3.2% ofglobal GDP in 2100 under a high-emissions scenario. Notably, today’s coldlocations are projected to benefit, while today’s poor and hot locations havelarge projected damages. Finally, our central estimates indicate that therelease of an additional ton of CO2 today will cause mortality-relateddamages of $36.6 under a high-emissions scenario, with an interquartile rangeaccounting for both econometric and climate uncertainty of [−$7.8, $73.0]. These empirically grounded estimates exceed theprevious literature’s estimates by an order of magnitude.

我们使用40个国家的次国家级数据，估计了特定年龄的死亡率与温度之间的关系，并将其外推到今天没有数据的国家以及气候变化的未来。我们发现了一种U型关系，其中极端寒冷和酷热的温度会增加死亡率，尤其是对老年人而言。至关重要的是，这种关系因收入增加和对当地气候的适应而变得扁平化。使用揭示偏好方法来恢复未观察到的适应成本，我们估计，在高排放情景下，气候变化造成的全球死亡风险平均增加（包括适应效益和成本）在2100年约占全球GDP的3.2%。值得注意的是，今天的寒冷地区预计将受益，而今天的贫困和炎热地区预计将受到较大的损害。最后，我们的中心估计表明，在高排放情景下，今天额外释放一吨二氧化碳将导致36.6美元的死亡相关损害，计量经济学和气候不确定性的四分位间距为[-7.8美元，73.0美元]。这些基于经验的估计比以前的文献估计高出一个数量级。

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac020

3．Reshaping GlobalTrade: The Immediate and Long-Run Effects of Bank Failures

重塑全球贸易：银行倒闭的直接和长期影响

[url=]Chenzi[/url] Xu

I show that a disruption to the financial sector can reshapethe patterns of global trade for decades. I study the first modern globalbanking crisis originating in London in 1866 and collect archival loan recordsthat link multinational banks headquartered there to their lending abroad.Countries exposed to bank failures in London immediately exported significantlyless and did not recover their lost growth relative to unexposed places. Theirmarket shares within each destination also remained significantly lower forfour decades. Decomposing the persistent market-share losses shows that theyprimarily stem from lack of extensive-margin growth, as the financing shockcaused importers to source more from new trade partnerships. Exportersproducing more substitutable goods, those with little access to alternativeforms of credit, and those trading with more distant partners experienced morepersistent losses, consistent with the existence of sunk costs and theimportance of finance for intermediating trade.

本文表明，金融部门的中断可以重塑数十年的全球贸易模式。我研究了1866年起源于伦敦的第一次现代全球银行业危机，并收集了档案贷款记录，将总部设在伦敦的跨国银行与其海外贷款联系起来。伦敦银行倒闭的国家立即出口大幅减少，并且没有恢复相对于未暴露地区失去的增长。四十年来，它们在每个目的地的市场份额也一直明显较低。分解持续的市场份额损失表明，它们主要源于缺乏广泛的利润率增长，因为融资冲击导致进口商从新的贸易伙伴关系中获取更多。生产更多可替代商品的出口商、难以获得替代信贷形式的出口商以及与较远伙伴进行贸易的出口商经历了更持久的损失，这与沉没成本的存在和融资对中间贸易的重要性相一致。

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac016

4．Sexual Harassmentand Gender Inequality in the Labor Market

劳动力市场中的性骚扰和性别不平等

[url=]Olle Folke[/url], [url=]Johanna Rickne[/url]

We describe how sexual harassment contributes to sexsegregation and pay inequality in the labor market. Combining nationallyrepresentative survey data and administrative data, we show that bothharassment and wages vary strongly and systematically across workplaces. Womenself-report more harassment from colleagues and managers in male-dominatedworkplaces where wages are relatively high, and men self-report more harassmentin female-dominated workplaces where wages are low. These patterns imply twoways that harassment may contribute to gender inequality. First, harassmentdeters women and men from applying for jobs in workplaces where they are thegender minority. A survey experiment with hypothetical job choices supportsthis mechanism. Respondents are highly averse to accepting jobs in workplaceswith a higher harassment risk for their own gender, but less averse when peopleof the opposite sex are at higher risk. A second way that harassmentcontributes to inequality is by making workplace gender minorities leave theirworkplaces for new jobs. An analysis of workplace transitions supports thismechanism. Women who self-report harassment are more likely to switch to newworkplaces with more female colleagues and lower pay.

我们描述了性骚扰如何导致劳动力市场中的性别隔离和薪酬不平等。结合具有全国代表性的调查数据和行政数据，我们发现骚扰和工资在工作场所之间差异很大且系统。在工资相对较高的男性占主导地位的工作场所，女性自我报告受到同事和经理的骚扰更多，而在工资低的女性占主导地位的工作场所，男性自我报告受到的骚扰更多。这些模式意味着骚扰可能导致性别不平等的两种方式。首先，骚扰使女性和男性无法申请他们属于性别少数群体的工作场所的工作。一项假设工作选择的调查实验支持这一机制。受访者非常反感接受自己性别骚扰风险较高的工作场所的工作，但当异性面临较高风险时，受访者则不那么反感。骚扰加剧不平等的第二种方式是让工作场所的性别少数群体离开工作场所去找新工作。对工作场所过渡的分析支持这一机制。自我报告性骚扰的女性更有可能转向女性同事更多、工资更低的新工作场所。

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac018

5．The Quality and Efficiency of Public and Private Firms: Evidencefrom Ambulance Services

公共和私营公司的质量和效率：来自救护车服务的证据

[url=]Daniel Knutsson[/url], [url=]Björn Tyrefors[/url]

Economic theory predicts that outsourcingpublic services to private firms reduces costs, but the effect on quality isambiguous. We explore quality differences between publicly and privately ownedambulances in Stockholm County, Sweden, a setting where patients are as good asrandomly assigned to ambulances with different ownership status. We find thatprivate ambulances reduce costs and perform better on contracted measures suchas response time, but perform worse on noncontracted measures such asmortality. In fact, a patient has a 1.4% higher risk of death within threeyears if a private ambulance is dispatched (in aggregate, 420 more deaths eachyear). We also present evidence of the mechanism at work, suggesting thatprivate firms cut costs at the expense of ambulance staff quality.

经济理论预测，将公共服务外包给私营企业可以降低成本，但对质量的影响是模糊的。我们探讨了瑞典斯德哥尔摩县公有和私营救护车之间的质量差异，在这种情况下，患者就像随机分配到具有不同所有权状态的救护车一样好。我们发现，私人救护车降低了成本，在响应时间等合同措施上表现更好，但在死亡率等非合同措施上表现更差。事实上，如果派遣私人救护车，患者在三年内的死亡风险要高出 1.4%（每年总共有420 人死亡）。我们还提出了该机制发挥作用的证据，表明私营公司以牺牲救护车人员的质量为代价来削减成本。

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac014