Economic journal 2023年第1期

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1.The Central Bank Strikes Back!Credibility of Monetary Policy under Fiscal Influence

央行反击了!财政影响下货币政策的可信度

Antoine Camous, Dmitry Matveev

TheEconomic Journal,Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 1–29, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac055

Abstract

How should independent central banks react if pressured by fiscalpolicymakers? We contrast the implications of two monetary frameworks: one,where the central bank follows a standard rule aiming exclusively at pricestability against the other, where monetary policy additionally leans againstfiscal influence. The latter rule improves economic outcomes by providingappropriate incentives to the fiscal authority. More importantly, theadditional fiscal conditionality can enhance the credibility of the centralbank to achieve price stability. We emphasise how the level and structure ofgovernment debt emerge as key factors affecting the credibility of monetarypolicy with fiscal conditionality.

如果受到财政政策制定者的压力，独立的央行应该如何应对?我们对比了两种货币框架的含义:一种是中央银行遵循专门针对价格稳定的标准规则，另一种是货币政策额外依赖于财政影响。后一种规则通过向财政当局提供适当的激励来改善经济结果。更重要的是，额外的财政条件可以增强央行实现物价稳定的可信度。我们强调，政府债务水平和结构如何成为影响带有财政条件的货币政策可信度的关键因素。

2.Spatial Polarisation

社会空间极化

Fabio Cerina, Elisa Dienesch, Alessio Moro, Michelle Rendall

TheEconomic Journal,Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 30–69, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac040

We document the emergence of spatial polarisation in the United States during the 1980–2008 period. Thisphenomenon is characterised by stronger employment polarisation in largercities, both at the occupational and the worker levels. We quantitativelyevaluate the role of technology in generating these patterns by constructingand calibrating a spatial equilibrium model. We find that faster skill-biasedtechnological change in larger cities can account for a substantial fraction ofspatial polarisation in the United States. Counterfactual exercises suggestthat the differential increase in the share of low-skilled workers across citysize is due mainly to the large demand by high-skilled workers for low-skilledservices and, to a smaller extent, to the higher complementarity between low-and high-skilled workers in production relative to middle-skilled workers.

我们记录了1980-2008年期间美国空间极化的出现。这一现象的特点是，在较大的城市，无论是在职业层面还是在工人层面，就业两极分化都更严重。通过构建和校准空间平衡模型，我们定量评估了技术在生成这些模式中的作用。我们发现，在较大的城市中，更快的技能偏向性技术变革可以解释美国空间极化的很大一部分。反事实分析表明，城市规模中低技能工人所占比例的差异增长主要是由于高技能工人对低技能服务的大量需求，在较小程度上是由于生产中低技能工人和高技能工人之间相对于中等技能工人具有更高的互补性。

3.TradingFavours through the Revolving Door: Evidence from China’s Primary Land Market

通过旋转门进行交易:来自中国主要土地市场的证据

Ting Chen, Li Han, James Kung, Jiaxin Xie

TheEconomic Journal,Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 70–97, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac060

By matching data onland transactions in China’s primary land market with detailed curricula vitaeof board directors in publicly listed firms, we identify a pattern of‘revolving-door’ exchanges between local officials and firms. The officialsdiscounted the price of land that they sold to the said firms, and weresubsequently rewarded with board appointments upon retirement. Specifically,these ‘client officials’ are three times as likely to be recruited by the‘patron firms’ as board directors and enjoy a salary that is 23% higher, and81% more company shares by comparison with directors who did not help firms tosecure cheap land deals. All of these, however, are conditional on patron firmsbeing able to receive a price discount, which averaged 19.4% when theypurchased them in normal times. However, when client officials were constrainedfrom providing a price discount during a surprise audit, the likelihood ofclient officials recruited as board directors was halved, with the pricediscount and extra compensation received by the patrons and clients,respectively, vanishing altogether. By providing evidence of the reciprocalbenefits received by both parties, we demonstrate that the revolving door isused as a ‘payment’ rather than a ‘connection’ device in the Chinese context.

通过将中国一级土地市场的土地交易数据与上市公司的详细董事履历进行匹配，我们发现了地方官员与公司之间的"旋转门"交流模式。这些官员打折出售给上述公司的土地价格，并在退休后获得董事会任命作为奖励。具体而言，与那些没有帮助公司获得廉价土地交易的董事相比，这些”客户官员”被”客户公司”聘用的可能性是董事会董事的三倍，并享有23%的高薪和81%的公司股份。然而，所有这些都是以客户公司能够获得价格折扣为条件的，当他们在正常情况下购买时，平均折扣为19.4%。然而，当客户官员在突击审计中受到提供价格折扣的限制时，客户官员被招募为董事会董事的可能性降低了一半，客户和客户分别获得的价格折扣和额外报酬完全消失。通过提供双方获得互惠利益的证据，我们证明旋转门在中国语境中被用作”支付”而不是”连接”设备。