JP摩根最新的新兴市场投资策略共103页
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy


• MSCI EM has declined by 5% in the past eight weeks. The two key
concerns are disappointing economic data and peripheral Europe event
risk. Anti-inflation policies are slowing growth in EM. Weaker macro
data are encouraging, as they signal to us that the end of the EM
tightening cycle is close. Lower headline inflation should follow slower
growth. This should mark the end of the de-rating in EM equities.
• Earnings revision strategies are working well. As economic data
deteriorate, cyclical sectors should suffer from meaningful downgrades.
Our key asset allocation call is to remain UW commodities/energy and
exporters; UW Brazil, Russia, Korea and Mexico.
• We are less bearish due to two data points: cheaper oil and recent Ashare
market strength. But the risk/reward balance is still unfavorable, in
our view, with slower US job creation, double dip/stagflation fears,
earnings downgrades and the risk of a hard landing in the Chinese
property market.
• Emerging market valuations are within one standard deviation of their
long term averages. Large cap stocks with good fundamentals are not
cheap. The cyclical sectors offer value but have the highest earnings
risk. Our advice is to wait for a better entry point in 3Q11.
• The most bullish scenario for the year is a meaningful decline in energy
and commodity prices. This is more likely with the IEA release of 60M
barrels of oil. The main beneficiary would be the US consumer through
cheaper gasoline; we are less bearish on tech. In EM, controlled
petroleum product prices blunt the impact. The main effect is a lower
risk premium in current account deficit markets; India, Turkey and
Chile. We are upgrading Chile to OW and Turkey to Neutral. For more
on Turkey, please see Upgrading Turkey to Neutral on lower oil prices,
David Aserkoff, 27 June 2011.
• Our key trades are:
• Hunker down: UW cyclicals/exporters/commodities
/energy; OW quality/large caps/defensive earnings.
• China's demographic destiny: OW ASEAN, automation,
consumption
• Excessive monetary/inflation fears priced in: OW
domestic Taiwan and ASEAN.
• OW Quant earnings revision strategy
• The key risks to our view are higher commodity/energy prices (due to
supply issues) and/or re-acceleration in global growth. For more on risks,
please see page 13.