关于新兴国家最新的投资策略！2011年8月18日出版！共108页
Key Trades and Risks
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy
 We are less bearish post the correction. Statistically the chance of a positive 12-month return is high following a 15% correction. Add to what has been working: ASEAN, defensive rather than the BRICs.
 Why not buy the BRICs? Inflation. The buy signals are slower economic growth which leads to lower inflation and markets that are insensitive to earnings downgrades.
 Today’s concerns in the developed world serve to highlight the structural case for EM long-term outperformance. EM public sector debt and fiscal deficits are a third the level of DM. EM potential nominal GDP growth at 12% is four times DM’s 3%. EM consumption as a share of global consumption at 34% exceeds the share of US consumption at 28%. Once inflation pressures in the BRICs ease, EM equities should outperform DM. Decoupling is occurring within EM with the outperformance of countries without an inflation problem.
 Our key trades are:
o Hunker down: UW cyclical/commodities/ energy; OW quality/large caps/defensive earnings;
o China’s demographic destiny: OW ASEAN, automation, consumption;
o Excessive monetary/inflation fears priced in: OW domestic Taiwan and ASEAN;
o OW Quant earnings revision strategy.
 Risks appear high, but post the correction investors are mor e aware. Remember developed economies are out of policy bullets and lack consensus on how to manage fiscal stress. Key risks to our view are higher commodity/energy prices (due to supply issues and/or reacceleration
in global growth). For more on risks, please see page 18.
 For our ‘Key Trade’ stock ideas, click here to download the Bloomberg sheet.