The S&P Downgrade: Is the Sky Falling?

Saturday, August 06, 2011, by Mark Thoma

Paul Krugman on the S&P downgrade:

OK, so Standard and Poors has gone ahead with the threatened downgrade. It’s a strange situation.

On one hand, there is a case to be made that the madness of the right has made America a fundamentally unsound nation. And yes, it is the madness of the right: if not for the extremism of anti-tax Republicans, we would have no trouble reaching an agreement that would ensure long-run solvency.

On the other hand, it’s hard to think of anyone less qualified to pass judgment on America than the rating agencies. The people who rated subprime-backed securities are now declaring that they are the judges of fiscal policy? Really?

Just to make it perfect, it turns out that S&P got the math wrong by $2 trillion, and after much discussion conceded the point — then went ahead with the downgrade.

More than that, everything I’ve heard about S&P’s demands suggests that it’s talking nonsense about the US fiscal situation. ... In short, S&P is just making stuff up — and after the mortgage debacle, they really don’t have that right. So this is an outrage — not because America is A-OK, but because these people are in no position to pass judgment.

Mark Thoma's comment:

S&P is not worried about ability to pay, it is worried that the US political system does not have the necessary willingness. The worry is that we must cut spending and raise taxes to get the debt under control, both will be needed, but as the recent negotiations over the debt ceiling made clear, the GOP is unwilling to allow the necessary tax increases.

S&P may also be covering itself after doing so poorly prior to the financial meltdown. If S&P leaves the outlook at AAA and problems emerge down the road, it's credibility will be even more shot than it is already and likely irreparable. Missing another big problem is essentially a death sentence. But if it downgrades the debt and nothing happens, it can claim its warnings and the downgrade were key factors in persuading people in both the public and private sectors to take steps to avoid disaster. It's Chicken Little claiming that his warnings stopped the sky from falling.

The point I'm making is that because of its damaged reputation, the risks S&P faces are not symmetric, and the lack of symmetry will bias the ratings it issues toward ensuring it doesn't miss another problem. The upshot is that false positives, as I believe this is, will be much more likely.