兰德报告：2020技术革命


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Various technologies—including biotechnology, nanotechnology (broadly defined),
materials technology, and information technology—have the potential for significant and
dominant global impacts by 2020. This report is based on a set of foresights (not
predictions or forecasts)1 into global technology trends in the abovementioned areas and
their implications for the world in the year 2020. These foresights were complemented by
analysis of data on current and projected S&T capabilities, drivers, and barriers in
countries across the globe.
This work was sponsored by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) to inform its
publication of Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council’s
2020 Project Based on Consultations with Nongovernmental Experts Around the World,
December 2004. In addition, funding was provided by the Intelligence Technology
Innovation Center (ITIC) and the Department of Energy. It is a follow-on report to
RAND MR-1307-NIC, The Global Technology Revolution (2001), which was sponsored
by the NIC to inform its 2000 document, Global Trends 2015. Global Trends 2015 and
the 1996 NIC document Global Trends 2010 identified key factors that appeared poised
to shape the world by 2015 and 2010, respectively.
This report should be of interest to policymakers, intelligence community
analysts, technology developers, the public at large, and regional experts interested in
potential global technology trends and their broader social effects.
This project was conducted jointly in the Intelligence Policy Center and the
Acquisition and Technology Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research
Division (NSRD). For further information regarding this report, contact its authors or the
Intelligence Policy Center Director, John Parachini. NSRD conducts research and
analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant
Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the
Defense Intelligence Community, allied foreign governments, and foundations. NSRD is
a division of RAND, a non-profit corporation chartered in the public interest to conduct
policy analysis (see www.rand.org/NSRD/).
For more information on RAND’s Acquisition and Technology Policy Center,
contact the Director, Philip Antón. He can be reached by email at atpcdirector@
rand.org; by phone at 310-393-0411, extension 7798; or by mail at RAND
Corporation, 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138.
For more information on RAND’s Intelligence Policy Center, contact the
Director, John Parachini. He can be reached by email at john_parachini@rand.org; by
phone at 703-413-1100, extension 5579; or by mail at RAND Corporation, 1200 South
Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050.
More information about RAND is available at www.rand.org.