约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯去世65年了，却仍惊人地存在着。随便翻开一张报纸，点进一篇博客或打开电视，瞧，那不就是，他无处不在，就像玩“威利在哪儿”（译者注：一款类似找茬的游戏）。英国经济学领域的圣人——小时候绰号大鼻子的，告诉你说相貌英俊的不见得火——此人谷歌点击率力压李昂纳多·迪卡普里奥。德克萨斯的州长里奇·培瑞显然受够了这位老主演，在最近一次共和党的辩论中，他中途打断，向对手炫出一条新闻，呃，那就是，凯恩斯已是亡人。

For some, Keynes is the hero who rescued the West from the Great Depression, for others the villain to blame for the current mess. To me, he’s neither, but rather the Winston Churchill of economics, radiating optimism when things looked bleakest, never so happily engaged as in a national or global emergency.
对某些人来说，凯恩斯是英雄，他挽救西方世界走出大萧条，对其他人来说，他被视作恶棍，当下的混乱要归罪于他。对我来说，他两者皆不是，而是经济学中的丘吉尔，在形势最严峻的时刻仍焕发出乐观精神，从来没什么能像全国或全球性的非常时刻那么吸引他，让他雀跃。

An emergency is what we’re having now, of course. Unemployment has been stuck around 9 percent for more than two years. Business is treading water. Families have less cash to spend. Markets are in turmoil. All our old anxieties have us by the throat again: the American Dream is dead; the middle class is disappearing; our children won’t live as well as we do. Never mind that similar fears proved groundless in the past. When you’re scared in the middle of the night, it’s almost impossible to imagine morning.
当然，我们现在正处于非常时刻。连续两年多失业率维持在9％左右，市场混乱，生意打水漂，家庭开支缩减。旧有的焦虑感又回来了，全堵在喉咙口憋着：美国梦破灭了；中产阶级正迅速消亡；孩子们的生活不会跟我们一样好。曾有类似的恐慌之后证明是杞人忧天，可现如今别拿过去的经验当一码事。午夜时分被恐惧牢牢抓住，这时候的你基本想像不出黎明的模样。

Keynes could, though. He had a surprising ability to see beyond the grim present to better days — especially for someone who famously noted that “in the long run we are all dead.”
而凯恩斯可以。他具备惊人的能力，可以越过低迷的现状看到美好的未来——尤其他的一句名言即是”从长远来看，我们都死了。”

Keynes’s sunny optimism was most striking in the midst of one of the darkest chapters of modern economic history. If we think of the recession of 2007-9 as a Category 1 hurricane, the Great Depression would qualify as a Category 5. Income, per person, was one-fifth of what it is today, adjusted for inflation. Unemployment was nearly three times as high. More than a third of the population was destitute. There were virtually no government benefits.
在现代经济史上，凯恩斯快活的乐观主义精神大量渗入其中最黑暗的一章。假设07年到09年的经济衰退是一级风暴的话，上世纪30年代的大萧条就是五级。那时侯每人的平均收入是现在的五分之一，因通货膨胀调整至现在的水平。失业率逼近现在的三倍。超过三分之一的人口处于贫困。ZF财政收入几乎为零。

Preachers talked of Armageddon, and pundits contemplated “the possibility that the Western system of society might break down and cease to work.” Keynes, however, reassured fellow citizens, in a silvery, seductive voice that was one of his sexiest features, that what came before “was not a dream. This is a nightmare, which will pass away with the morning.”
牧师谈论起《圣经》中的世界末日，专家盘算着“西方社会没落、停止运转的可能性。”然而凯恩斯用他银铃般的诱人嗓音鼓励市民（一副好嗓子是他最性感的特征之一），之前出现的境况“不是幻觉。是噩梦，它会随着清晨的到来而消散。”

Admittedly, Keynes had no more seen the hurricane coming than his counterparts predicted the crises of 1893 or 1907 or those of the 1990s or 2008. Irving Fisher’s ill-timed pronouncement, just before the crash of 1929, that “stocks have reached a permanently high plateau” will never be forgotten. Keynes was equally surprised and forced to put his two favorite Impressionist paintings up for sale. Still, he wasn’t about to waste time ruing past failures when panic was in the air. Instead, he quickly began reassuring the British public that “we are suffering just now from a bad attack of economic pessimism.” Boldly, he predicted that by the time his great-nieces and great-nephews were adults, mankind would have solved its “economic problem.” At least in the West, the material requisites for a good life would be available to all.
诚然，凯恩斯没有亲眼见过1893年、1907年、包括上世纪90年代或2008年的危机。就在1929年经济崩溃前夕，欧文费雪说“股票市场已实现在相当高的水平上保持稳定的状态”，这种不合时宜的言论让人永生难忘。面临危机凯恩斯同样吃惊，并被迫出卖两幅珍爱的印象派绘画作品。空气中弥漫着恐慌，他却仍然不为过去的失误作无谓的悔恨。相反，他立即开始鼓励英国民众“当下我们正经受着经济上的悲观主义带来的沉重打击。”他勇敢地预测，等到他的侄孙辈长大成人时，人类已解决掉“经济上的麻烦。”至少在西方，高质量生活所必需的物质品谁都可以买到。

He did not dismiss the dangers of 25 percent unemployment, nor advocate that government embrace nature’s cure and wait it out. But he disagreed vehemently with those who called for draconian or dictatorial measures. He insisted that the Western economies were suffering from a mechanical breakdown for which there was a relatively easy fix. (For someone who didn’t drive, he was inordinately fond of vehicular metaphors.)
他没有忽略失业率25％的险境，也没有主张ZF依赖自然之力，无为地等待痊愈。但他坚决不赞同那些呼吁下猛药的人，坚持认为西方经济遭遇的是机械故障，对应有轻松的修正之法。（凯恩斯不开车，却极度喜用车辆作喻。）

There was, moreover, a solution. Breaking the vicious circle that deflation was creating for farmers and businessmen was well within the power of governments. All the monetary authorities had to do was lower interest rates by creating more money until business could raise prices and would find it worthwhile to begin investing again.
解决之道即是打破恶性循环，为保障农民和商人的利益，在ZF的良性调控下实行通货紧缩。所有的金融部门需要做的只是降低利率，让钱流动起来，直到做生意的可以提高价格，并发现值得重新投资的时候。

When the Depression failed to respond to monetary policy but instead deepened and spread, Keynes went back to the drawing board. By 1936 he had worked out a new theory of slumps resistant to the usual cures of easy money and low interest rates, calling it, with his trademark lack of modesty, “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.”
这种货币政策非但没有产生正面效果，反而加深加宽了衰退的深度和广度，于是凯恩斯回到了书桌前。通常的治疗措施，像降低利率、增强资金流动性这些并不见效，凯恩斯针对这种有免疫力的经济衰退在1936年炮制出了新的理论，命名为“就业、利息和货币通论”，带着他一贯缺乏谦虚的特点。

What never changed during the Depression and the Second World War was Keynes’s positive mind-set.
不管是经历大萧条还是二战，凯恩斯的乐观心态从未改变。

On what, exactly, did Keynes’s faith in the future rest, apart from his upbeat temperament and can-do British spirit? Confidence in the “apparatus of the mind,” his term for thinking like an economist. His great innovation was to create — in parallel with America’s Fisher — an “economics of the whole” that was useful for understanding and treating temporary but dangerous economic breakdowns.
除了乐观性格外，还有什么支撑他对未来的信念呢？对经济学“心智工具”的信任，使他的思维方式像经济学家。他的一项巨大创新即是建立了“整体经济学”，对理解、应对暂时的，却是危险的经济下滑很有帮助，这一贡献与美国的欧文·费雪齐平。

KEYNES straddled the Old World notion that the best a member of the working classes could do was to accept his station in life, and the New World order in which it was accepted that nations and people could make their own destinies. By the time he settled on economics, the once dismal science had become, if not exactly gay, then no longer grim, hopeless or resigned.
凯恩斯跨立于新旧两个世界之间，旧世界的观念是，作为工薪阶层所能做的最好的选择就是认命，而新世界的秩序里，大到国家，小到个体，都能够塑造自己的命运。当他投身经济学的那一刻，这个曾经沉闷的学科不再有阴森无望的气质，如果严格说来也谈不上绚丽多彩的话。

Alfred Marshall, the man most responsible for Keynes’s career choice, was also the one most responsible for the new way of thinking. To paraphrase a great American economist, Paul Samuelson: before Marshall, economics was about what you couldn’t change. The new economics was about what you could.
凯恩斯的事业选择很大程度上缘于阿尔弗雷德.马歇尔,此人同样在很大程度上引领了新的思维方式。保罗．萨缪尔森这样诠释这位伟大的美国经济学家：在马歇尔之前，经济学探讨的是你无法改变什么。有了马歇尔，经济学转向你可以改变什么。

Consider the dismal science when Marshall took it up. There was no cheering up Karl Marx, who, landing in London in 1849, witnessed the Victorian economic miracle and, to quote Gladstone, 20 years of improvement in the “average condition of the British laborer ... unexampled in the history of any country and of any age.” The British founders of political economy were scarcely less glum. John Stuart Mill, a libertarian, socialist and supporter of unions and women’s rights, doubted whether democratic reforms or technological progress could have much effect on how the average Briton lived.
设想马歇尔刚涉足这门沉闷学科的情景吧。1849年卡尔·马克思登陆伦敦时，迎接他的没有喝彩欢呼声，他目睹了维多利亚时代的经济奇迹，引述格莱斯顿的话说“史无前例,英国工人身处的整体形势”连续二十年不断进步,然而英国政治经济学的奠基人们却未减一丝阴郁。古典自由派、支持联盟和女权的社会主义者约翰·穆勒怀疑，民主改革或技术革新是否能大大改善英国人的生活水平。

When he published “Das Kapital” in 1867, Marx claimed that he was revealing society’s “law of motion.” Yet he had never bothered to visit a single factory. Marshall devoted months every year to touring factories in virtually every major industry, interviewing businessmen, trade union leaders and workers. A trip to America confirmed that competition was the ingenious mechanism that compelled managers to constantly improve their operations, then to share the gains with workers.  If wages depended on productivity, workers themselves — and their elected representatives — could influence their prospects by pursuing or promoting mobility, education and public health.
1867年，马克思发表《资本论》时宣称，书中揭示了社会的“运行规律”，而他从未讨扰自己随便走访一家工厂。而马歇尔每年花数月时间走访工厂，基本上把大的分属不同产业的工厂走遍了，他采访商人、贸易联盟的领导和工人。他的美国之行证实了一点，竞争是绝妙的途径，它迫使管理者不断改进经营方式，并与工人一同分享利润。如果生产力决定了工资的多寡，那么工人们——以及他们之中卓越的代表——通过追求或改进人员流动、加强自身教育和公共卫生的建设，就能开创自己的大好前途。

The new, cheerful social science that Marshall pioneered and Keynes and others innovated was a genuine revolution in human thinking that changed the lives of everyone on the globe. What would Keynes say if he were, say, to appear on CNBC tomorrow? That we’ve overcome a dozen challenges as bad or worse, that the tenfold rise in standards since Jane Austen’s lifetime shows that we’ve done more things right than wrong, and that the “apparatus of the mind” — which demands that we let facts change our minds, engage our critics and see common ground — is infinitely more helpful in a crisis than ideology or raw emotion.
这个崭新的、令人鼓舞的社会学科由马歇尔作开路先驱，凯恩斯和其他人不断创新，掀起了人类思维方式真正的革命，改变了地球上每个人的生活。如果凯恩斯明天上财经电视台会说些什么呢？他会说，我们已克服了许多严峻的、更严峻的挑战，从简·奥斯汀时代到现在，人们的生活水准翻了十倍，这说明我们做的正确的事情大于犯下的失误，而经济学的“心智工具”——它要求的是让事实改变我们的思考，让事实影响评论家的观点，看到其中的共同之处——在危机中这绝对比空想或盲目乐观更有帮助。

And what would Keynes do now? Go shopping, I suspect. This was the “incorrigible optimist,” his biographer Robert Skidelsky relates, who made a big bet on the United States recovery in 1936 and hung on when it collapsed again in 1937. It may have looked like midnight but Keynes knew that morning would come again.
想想凯恩斯现在会做什么呢？我猜是血拼。凯恩斯的传记作者罗伯特·斯基德尔斯基这样写到，他是个“不可救药的乐观主义者”，在1936年大胆下赌美国的复苏，到1937年经济再次萎靡时仍不改其志。也许这就像漆黑的子夜时分，不过凯恩斯明白，黎明会重新到来。

以上翻译摘自 译言网
http://article.yeeyan.org/view/236605/218936

when we all believe that the morning will come ,then nothing could beat us .

Common sense is not that common!

The morning comes slowly, but, we should be optimistic as Keynes was.

The Sunny Economist
这能否叫新经济啊，呵呵

讲得十分好  谢谢了。

本想膜拜下王航的，结果是转载......

其实也不简单

一个去世65年的经济学人。

Keyens is a marvolous figure during the first half of 20th century,introducing people the intervine of governmet to mitigate the dire recession.For a long time many west countries adopted his suggestions .Though his idea was rejected by economist like Friedman who were pessimistic about the ability of government to regulate business cycle with fiscal policies.But I heard that he once had exclusively homosexual relations

认真读了一遍！无论凯恩斯，马歇尔，萨缪尔森，还是马克思等等，他们都对经济学作出了重大贡献，推动了整个经济学科的发展！但社会在发展，人类在进步，经济学也必然会与时俱进。现在的经济学已经越来越向微观集中，且有与行为学、心理学交叉融合的趋势。因为即使是经济学上的理性人，在作出决策时也会受到很多因素的影响。不过一个好的心态对于经济学的研究来说还是大有裨益的！

哎，大师一去不复返~~

宏观经济确实是足够人头疼的一件事啊 ！！！不过凯恩斯还是有很大的影响力的！！

Keynes, I have to say, is a real hero of our times. Optimistic, brave, always with confidence for the future. Most of us are weak, with getting panic in face of the emergency by exaggerating its appalling consequences. Once the crisis has faded, we even cannot stop criticizing our cowardice and timidity while looking back. Crisis always acts as a filter of oracles from the common herd by applying the rule called "survival of the fittest". A belief of struggle as well as the courge of challeging the difficulities should be never and ever abandoned regardless of the situations we are thrown in.

凯恩斯有句名言，记忆特别深：政治家只不过是经济学家思想上的奴隶。 你们怎么看？

the sunny economist ~~~the  handsome economist ~~ the  intelligent economist  


like this article,  abundant, historical, humorous

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