概要如下:
Note from the authors 3
Executive summary 4
Implementation 8
Allocation: A conservative start to the year 22
Setting the stage 27
Macro: Global concerns overshadow local fundamentals 29
China: Maintain OW on policy easing and attractive valuations; we assess the probability of a hard landing 40
India: Downgrading to Underweight on macro concerns 46
Earnings: Single-digit growth next year, moderate rebound in 2013 51
Valuation and returns: Near-term risks, subsequent recovery 57
Growth Market Strategy: From GDP growth to equity returns 72
Probing property-related risks in Asia 76
Foreign investor positioning: More domestic, more defensive 80
Events 85
Economic backdrop 87
Australia: A drag from the domestic economy 88
China: Easing into a better place 90
Hong Kong: Headwinds to asset price cycle 92
India: Funding headwinds and cyclical challenges 94
Indonesia: Firm domestic demand outlook, stretched valuations 96
Japan: Cautious note to start, but steady performance overall 98
Korea: Inexpensive, but hindered by global macro weakness 100
Malaysia: Defensive play, safe haven in an uncertain environment 102
Philippines: Valuations not low enough to offset liquidity risk 104
Singapore: Sensitive to the global cycle 106
Taiwan: Global concerns dominate pre-election excitement 108
Thailand: Reconstruction and political uncertainty are the themes 110
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