1 论文标题
消息冲击下的财政政策及其宏观影响
Expectation effects and Macroeconomic Implications of Fiscal Policy


2 出处和链接
《管理世界》2011年第9期：
http://www.mwm.net.cn/_d272491987.htm

4 摘要：传统的经济周期理论隐含假定了财政政策冲击是突然宣布实施的，经济中的个体事先并不知情，而事实上公众往往可以提前得到关于政策的消息。本文尝试建立消息推动下的经济周期（News Driven Business Cycle, 简称NDBC）模型，通过贝叶斯方法估计模型并分析政策消息对形成公众预期、改变公众行为的重要性，同时结合脉冲反应对比分析预期到的财政政策和未预期到的财政政策对宏观经济的作用机制和影响。通过对不同政策的模拟，本文发现财政政策的消息冲击对中国经济具有重要作用，在消息冲击的影响下的财政政策效果与传统周期模型下实际政策冲击的效果之间具有较明显的区别。本文结论对于经济危机背景下的财政政策制定和实施具有参考价值。
关键词：动态随机一般均衡  消息推动经济周期  财政政策 贝叶斯估计

Abstract: Traditional business cycle theories assume implicitly that fiscal policy is unanticipated by the agents, though in reality the public is informed about policies before the policies are implemented. Through building a version of News Driven Business Cycle model, we analyze the importance of news about fiscal policies on forming public expectation and hence changing public behavior. And we compare the mechanism and impact of anticipated fiscal policies with unanticipated ones. We illustrate the macroeconomic implications of anticipated fiscal policies and investigate the importance of news shocks regarding these policies using Bayesian estimation. We show that a New Keynesian sticky price model with investment adjustment cost can generate Pigou cycles when agents receive news about fiscal policy shocks as well as the news about technology shocks. Our results suggest that anticipated policy shocks play important roles in the economy. The effects of fiscal policy under news shocks are significantly different from that under real shocks.

Key words: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium; News Driven Business Cycles; Fiscal Policies; Beyesian Estimation.