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2007-3-3 00:24:00
以下是引用bressone在2007-2-27 18:45:00的发言:…对于theory of everything的东西,也是一样。这可能只是人类一直以来的一个梦。因为做过一个梦,就认为一定能证明,世界确实是自己梦境中那样的。Ce n’est pas absurd?因为梦能不能实现,最后还是要回到醒的状态中,有的梦,通过某种努力(就像那些能满足前提假设的)。但不能就此认为,所有的梦都能实现,即使这个梦在人类看来和其他已经实现的梦想看起来一样合理和有可能实现…

恕直言,这段话没有什么有价值的信息。

搞TOE的科学家们是否在搞“伪科学”,楼主还没有告诉我们。

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2007-3-3 00:28:00
以下是引用bressone在2007-2-27 18:45:00的发言:…如果经济学想有些用的话,他就要改变为科学的状态,也就是,放弃通过满足某种前项假设来获得确定性的梦想…

这段话不太理解。“科学的状态”,也就是放弃“通过满足某种前项假设来获得确定性”?

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2007-3-3 00:34:00
以下是引用bressone在2007-2-27 18:45:00的发言:…其他“学家们”想“干预现实世界,如果他们能(如物理学家),或者他们对资源分配的影响很小(如红学家),那没有关系,可是,如果即无能,有会对资源分配造成影响,那就不行了…

楼主说了半天,好像只这句是楼主最想说的。

如果“既无能又会对资源分配造成影响”,那当然“不行了”,即使经济学在搞“真科学”也是如此。兜“伪科学”这个大圈子,有必要吗?

“伪科学”与“无能”有着充分或必要的关系吗?

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2007-3-3 00:38:00
以下是引用bressone在2007-2-27 18:45:00的发言:…至于上帝,是一定要有的。上帝其实就是one ,不可分的one ,因为我在前面已经说过,我们认识世界,是通过把它分成小碎片,但总有分布下去的时候,这里就是one.好比理论的公理。每一个理论中,都有不可解释的东西。这里,就的假定它是这样的,于是上帝就来了…

个人以为,至少发展到今天的经济学,已经不需要你引入的那个GOD了,你的那个GOD已经被解剖了——你的那个GOD是要让人类花费成本的,并且成本不低。

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2007-3-3 05:51:00
经济只是一种表面形式,而实质是一种思想的外在表现。比如很多历史上的盛是。都是有一些有志的团队。为了国富民强而变革,他们的目标只有这一个,顺应事物发展的规律性和强有力的统冶权,不断的推进财富的积累发展。很明白的道理那就是现在的中国,开始没有什么现成路,但是只有一个目标,就是富国强国。但是富了后,强了后,富谁了,强谁了,谁是现在最大的受益者,这就要思考的问题。
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2007-3-7 16:31:00
中国的目标不是富国强国


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2007-4-11 17:01:00

一切都是空的形式,我们每天所看到的一切是不是只是在我们看来才有意义,而实际上对其他一切来说都是空洞的形式呢。我们以为重要的东西,是不是只是一种形式,而世界在他的意义上与我们所作,所想的一切都是无关的。当人们用各种解释来说明某些东西合理,而另一些东西不合理的时候,是不是实际上什么也没说。像bataille所说的那样,我们要消耗掉多余的能量,当我们自身已不可能成长以后,就把他消耗在形式中。

很多人之生活在形式中,他们每天所与之打交道的,所仰仗获得收入的,都是空的形式。如果世界是那样而不是这样,其实际上有区别吗?如果我们只追求形式,就像我们曾经许多次作的那样,那么我们还剩下些什么。

如果我们抛开经济学的种种形式,我们会过得更好吗?也许不会,因为经济本身就是形式。我们的许多活动,除开形式,就剩不下什么了。如果没有形势,官僚,奸商和经济学家们就会统统死掉,因为他们什么也创造不出。

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2007-4-11 18:27:00

经济学本来就不是经济学,它是哲学,政治学,社会学,人类心理学等等的综合

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2007-4-17 17:37:00
there has been no significant advancement in the field of economics in
the past decades which saw a significant increase in the income of the
sogenannte economists, this is because this field is occupied by some
third rate mathematicians and first rate liars who have led the science
in a wrong way that it is no longer appropriate to call it science any
more.
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2007-4-17 18:01:00
econmics, is a science which is forced to recognise a tempo-space duality. the study of political economy and of economic history constitue two distinguishable disciplines belonging to one and the same science. although it may not be fully realized, the distinction is required by an inner necessity of the subject. it is a necessity entirely analogous to that of a sailing ship and the river. it is one thing to design and build the ship in such a way that it can sail in the river safely and swiftly, and another as for how the ship actually sails due to the depth of water and speed of flowing in different parts of the river. that is to say, it is one thing to study the structure of the economy, which is the focus point of today's mainstream economics, and another to examine the natural basis on which the economy run, which is well out of the scope of today's economy.
it is sometimes difficult for most of us to realize the distinction. because the whole world that is accessible to our perception is only the ship and we can only figure out what the river is like by deduction. the fact is,no matter how well informed we are of how the ship is built, the way the ship is to sail still depend largely on the river, we are all at mercy of the lord.
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2007-5-30 16:28:00

回复:(bressone)为什么经济学是伪科学及其他

Since the days of his infancy, man has been dreamt of conquering the world. The meaning of the world evolved from the tiny habitats of our forefathers to the global village today. To this day, at least half of us believe we have to a large extent put the world under our control and it seems quite obvious we have done so, or at least are on the way to realize that ultimate Zweck. However, the other half of us are not so optimistic. Over the past thousands of years, people from all walks of life have asked the following questions. Is that really the case? Has all that he has achieved mere illusions? Is the dream only one that can be never realized, or because he is on the wrong way that is heading away from it? The debate is especially merkwurdig today, as every decision we take today will have a ever significant and irrevocable impact on our future.

To have a better idea of the situation we are facing, it is a necessity to see what der erhober der welt ist. To have something under control is eradicate or at least reduce its body freedom to such a degree that whatever changes may occur to it is well within the expectation of the owner. Your pet cat is under your control because you always keep it in your house or even tie a rope to its neck, therefore, it can only be found in your house or is always only a rope-length distance from you and is in this sense within your control. Moreover, a cat always serves as a cat, you are quite convinced that it can do you no more harm than breaking your antique vase or leaving some scratches on your hand.

On the other hand, a wild lowe living in Africa (another member of the cat family) is not under your control. You can neither keep it within your reach, nor can you make sure if your pet lowe will turn to kill you.

So far, what is called the process of conquering the world is merely the process of reducing the body freedom of it. The scientific advancement that mankind made so far is not about what the world really is, but how to make the world more certain and controllable. A physical law always runs like this, ceteris paribus, if condition A is satisfied, then B will happen. Thus, science is good at telling us how to build a plane or a nuclear bomb, but poor at predicting how a piece of paper would be hurled by the wind in the St Marco square.

It is in this way that body degrees of freedom are reduced. Natural laws tell us what will happen if certain condition is met, and the development of our productivity enables us to meet more conditions, and so on and on.

The fact that natural science is regarded as a more solid a science than social science can be better explained by the arguments above. In natural science, the preconditions are more likely to be satisfied. While in social sciences like economics, the hypothesis and preconditions are much harder to be met, in other word, the degree of freedom is highly unlikely to be reduced significantly.

One of the best examples of it can be found in totalitarian regimes where the authority controls everything from media to education, from production to consumption, in order to make every citizen think and behave in the same fashion. This can be explained as an effort to reduce the body freedom of the social structure and make easier for the authority to control the country. But it turns out its not an easy job, the authority needs to make immense investment to have a hand on almost all aspects of daily life and maintaining a large army and police force. To make things worse, the goal of reducing degree of freedom can only be achieved at the cost of discouraging innovation. The high cost of maintaining the authority and lack of innovation tell us why economic performance of totalitarian regimes are usually poor.

When we read novels or watch TV dramas, it often occurred to us why the stories that seem so beautiful can hardly be found in the real world. It’s because in the world of literature, the authors deliberately reduce the degrees of freedom. The chain of events would break if any one of the characters just thinks a little bit otherwise. But in the literature world, everyone is typicalized and would only think and act in a predictable way.

Economics is probably the most controversial subject to this day. On one hand, economists insist that the result of their work has a significant impact on the world’s economy, on the other, many more doubt whether economics will have any significance beyond the realm of elfenbeinturm. It is because economic theories are based on a series of hypothesis and preconditions which are unlikely to realize in the real world that many doubt the practicability of these theories.

It should be point out I never doubt the logical validity of economic theories. Economists today are also good mathematicians and it is no doubt the result they arrived through deduction from the axioms and postulates is sound. The problem lies in how to realize the preconditions. In my opinion, these theories can only be used in a world where body freedom is much small than that of ours where everyone thinks and acts as the theories herausfordernt. As a result, the economists, who seek to have their theories carried out and usually have a big say in the government, focus on establishing a structure that will reduce the body freedom of the world.

One way to achieve this is to establish a framework of laws and regulations in which economic activities are carried out. The hypothesis behind this is that all men in the economic sense are rational and would only do something whose benefit outweighs its cost. And thus, the legal framework adds incentives to some activities and diverts resources away from activities whose cost exceeds benefit after laws and regulations are applied. As for why some activities are encouraged while others discouraged will be discussed later. As a result, the degrees of freedom of the space of possible economic activities are reduced.

The other way is to reduce economic players in the realm of economy. Here economic players refer to those that would play a significant part in economy. As we know, the more components a system is composed of, the more complex it is. Thus, by concentrating the resources an entity is endowed, the number of economic players in it is reduced and so does body freedom. As is often seen in centralized economies, a country’s resources are controlled by the authority and with them large state owned entities are established, the number of qualified players is controlled by the authority.

The purpose of these ways is to reshape our world so that it looks more like the perfect world described by our dear economists.

It seems a paradox that on one hand an economy with numerous small but homogeneous economic entities should have the largest body degree of freedom while on the other the situation is very similar to a perfect competitive market which is always hold as the simplest economic model whose result is most certain. Does large body degree of freedom always lead to unpredictability? The answer is yes and the paradox is in fact not a paradox. Since the numerous entities are homogeneous, their degree of freedom should be viewed as one and thus the perfect competitive market situation is another planet in the dreams of economists where the degrees of freedom are much lower.

Let’s go back to the debate between those who believe economic theories do promote economy and who do not. First, it should be pointed out what kind of impact, it there are any, will economic theories have on the economy. No matter how complex these theories are, they always exert their influence in the following ways:

1. Facilitating the flowing of resources, including reducing the barriers like lowering tariffs and establish a well functioning capital market.

2. Making adjustments to the economic structure, including diverting resources from one sector to another and supporting emerging industry.

If economics does work, it must work through the above two ways. Let’s see how.

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2007-5-30 16:30:00

Many say that economics plays an important role in the world today and college students majoring economics and the like are taught economic theories. But still I cannot see, if there is some example that can be given to show that the application of some economic theories lead to the economic success of some emerging or emerged economy, or result in the alleviation of poverty in some African countries. All I could see is a new theory is worked out after a country has undergone a considerable economic boom, or a country plunged in economic depression or crisis. It seems theories are used to explain instead of to guide economic activities. The theories explaining the economy boom of Japan after WWII can hardly be used even as references for Iraq, which has just undergone a war and is also rule by American military. You may argue that the situation between the two countries is so different and it should be the basic principles behind these theories instead of its details that should be paid attention to. In your opinion, the economic success of EU is a good example of the importance of economics. The establishment of the Breton Woods system and the Marshall Plan played a crucial role in reviving Europe. But I still wonder why the European economy accelerated so much after EU vertrag ist signed when the system and plan have already in place for quite a while.

The answer, I think, might be found in Mancur Olson’s masterpiece. It is the rule of economy of scale that works here. When Europe is integrated, the resources of its member countries are pooled together, and economic entities of larger scale are able to be formed. Better cooperation and coordination amongst mitglied countries lead to better allocation of resources and the birth of big companies.

Why economics work, or gives us the illusion that it works? The answer might lie in this. As is mentioned earlier, during the application of economic theories in the real world, some efforts are made to adapt the real world to the perfect world where the axioms and postulates of these theories are met. That is, they reduce the degree of freedom of the world. But as is mentioned, this zweck ist achieved through establishing a legal framework and concentration of resources carried out by the government. Therefore, the process of reducing body freedom is also the process of pooling resources. So, again, it is the rule of economy of scale that works.

So far, so good, if the economists have only gone thus far. However, many economists work for big companies or are at least on behalf of them, (the case of which I call the economist being in the industry). They are always lobbying the government to divert more resources to the industry they are in. Once the system that favors their industry, they would try their best to make the government to maintain it. So, what is wrong here?

The answer is that it violates the rule of economy of scale. The rule is not to concentrate resources in one place and more than double the output with doubled input. It should be held in a system where resources are free to flow, and would flow to the place where will work best. The fact that resources in the world is not evenly distributed is not because we deliberated planned it, but it is because resources will go to the place where it is most needed if remain unhindered. The process can be pictured as thus, there is some water on a large sheet of paper which is very soft and water proof. The paper is hanging by its four sides in the air. The water on it will only go to the lowest point on the paper and once more water gathers at a place, the weight of the paper will make press the paper even lower and as a result more water will concentrate on that. So, it’s the result of free flowing of resources that economy of scale is realized in some places. While in the case with economists, they actually hinder the free flow of resources. Because they do not want their industry to lose resources to other ones, so even in cases where resources should have been diverted to other places had there been no hindrance, they still refused to do so. Therefore, in the words of economists, the maximization of social welfare is not realized.

To make things worse, the experiments of economists might turn out a waste of time and other resources, if not a disaster, for mankind. As I mentioned at the beginning of this essay, besides the debate over the practicability of economic theories, there is the more important debate over whether mankind’s ultimate zweck of conquering the world could be realized. It seems, as far as western philosophy is concerned, we can conquer the world by reducing its body freedom. The establishment of social structures reduces the degrees of freedom of our society, so is the application of natural laws. Though we have gone far on this road, I still wonder this is the right road to the ultimate goal.

A good example to show this is the human language. Someone argues that human language is mirror of the real world by relating an object in the real world with a word. As Ferdinand de Saussure put it, the signified and the signifier. But in fact, its not a mirror of the real world, but one of the world perceived by us. Each word of our language has relative fixed meaning no matter what circumstances it’s in and different combination of words convey different ideas. Our perception goes like this, we divide the real world in our perception into small parts, each of which are considered fixed, and relate it to a word. Then they are recombined and synthesized in our mind to form meanings. When the meaning is conveyed to us, we make deductions from it and new meanings are formed. Then new meanings are cut into pieces and re-related to words and the real world to convey to others. Something wrong with this process would lead to dyslexia. It is through the process of cutting the world into small pieces that are considered certain that reducing degree of freedom is achieved. This looks a little bit like the example put forward by Henri Bergson: a replica of a painting is made by numerous pieces of colorful mosaics. But no matter how similar the two looks like, they are still on different levels. The former is a mere pile of fragments. A subtle change to the original painting will lead the former to be destroyed and recreated.

So is the case with our search for the ultimate goal. No matter how well we keep the world in our control in the sense of reducing its degree of freedom, it is still a different world. Even if we live quite comfortably with the world today, a subtle change to the current situation could still plunge us into leiden.

A suivre

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2007-5-30 20:52:00

建议楼主还是好好看下科学的定义吧。

经济学是科学。

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2007-7-3 16:10:00

科学无定义,定义不能适用于“科学”这样的词汇

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2007-7-3 16:28:00

经济学只是一门艺术:为一些人多分蛋糕和另一些人少分蛋糕找到借口.

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2007-7-22 14:50:00

逻各斯中心主义

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2007-7-23 18:10:00

  是会打仗的人是军事家,还是只会纸上谈兵的人是军事家。

  2战前,德国只用了4年多时间,就把经济发展起来了。2战后,瑞典仅仅只用了,短短几年的时间,就从1个贫穷落后的农业国家,发展成1个发达的工业国家。

  这2个人学的《经济学》难道也是伪科学。

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-7-23 18:10:17编辑过]

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2007-7-25 16:45:00
如果某国像二战前的德国和后的瑞典那样旧秩序被摧毁的一干二净,外部条件有适合的话,发展是自然的。发展来自客观条件,而不是经济学。经济学是hindsicht,只有时候解释,没有指导作用。
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2007-7-25 16:51:00
经济学和心理学是两大伪科学。用卡尔.popper的话来说是不能falsify。实际上,用我前面的话来说就是,经济学的前提无法实现,心理学的前提永远都能实现(可以编一些无法reduce的心理学特有的术语),所以都是伪科学。
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2007-7-25 17:08:00

凡科学理论有三部分组成,即理论特有的术语,可得到的或可以观察的现实世界的结果,以及两者之间的确定性关系。所以说,科学理论或模型绝非通常认为的是真实世界的正确反映,而是描述了一个与真实世界平行的世界,通过与真实世界共同的某些结果与其相联。其形式都是如果a,则b。理论对我们的意义是b,我们的目的是为了得到b.而理论正好提供了得到b的一条path,即满足a。而a在自然情况下是无法满足的,所以理论或模型是真实世界的正确反映。这样,所谓falsify也没有了证伪的意思,因为本没有真伪可分。所以科学理论的意义,在于可实现性,而不是falsifiability.

经济学没有可实现性。

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2007-7-26 08:43:00
经济的运行很大程度上受整个社会的人们的心理活动的影响.   经济学是一门科学, 可是一个经济学家要想准确的预测社会中其他人是怎么想的, 这个在现在是很难做到的....
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2007-7-26 18:38:00

  有假冒的,本身就证明存在真实的。有伪钞,就证明存在真钞票。

  是能够打胜仗的兵法是伪兵法,还是只会打败仗的兵法是伪兵法。

  是会打胜仗的人是军事家,还是只会纸上谈兵的人是军事家。

  2战前,德国只用了4年多时间,就把经济发展起来了。2战后,瑞典仅仅只用了,短短几年的时间,就从1个贫穷落后的农业国家,发展成1个发达的工业国家。

  这2个人学的《经济学》难道也是伪科学,也是伪经济学家。

  

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2007-7-27 07:39:00

  假作真时,真亦假。

  只要是能够打胜仗的兵法,会打胜仗的人,就可以了。

  把股票市场当提款机的人,必定是懂1点《经济学》的。

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-7-27 7:39:51编辑过]

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2007-7-27 10:49:00

现在的科学,伪的太多了,不伪的也不见得不是垃圾

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2010-5-2 06:33:34
这个水平的贴还是要MARK下的
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2010-5-2 09:49:45
很有深度,但是也不能全盘否定。
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