Asian banks 2012:
Focusing on policy relaxation; buy
yields over growth
Executive summary ....................................................................... 3
Potential downside protected by low valuations and expectations .................................. 3
2012: challenging, but predictably so ........................................... 5
Awaiting a year of challenges… but low valuation supportive ......................................... 5
2012 earnings outlook – we expect an NPAT fall of 7% for the region ............................. 7
A historical study of Asian banks’ ability to generate cash returns for investors, relative
to capital-raising ............................................................................................................... 10
Banks with high dividend yields to outperform vs growth stocks in 2012 ..................... 12
Difficult capital-raising environment means growth will likely be capped by banks’
sustainable RWA growth rate .......................................................................................... 13
Valuations and risks ......................................................................................................... 15
ASIAN COUNTRIES 2012 OUTLOOK ........................................... 16
Japan .......................................................................................... 17
Outlook summary and top picks ...................................................................................... 17
Japanese banks charts ..................................................................................................... 19
Australia ...................................................................................... 21
Outlook summary and top picks ...................................................................................... 21
Australian banks charts .................................................................................................... 24
Hong Kong .................................................................................. 26
Outlook summary and top picks ...................................................................................... 26
Hong Kong banks charts .................................................................................................. 28
Singapore .................................................................................... 30
Outlook summary and top picks ...................................................................................... 30
Singapore banks charts .................................................................................................... 32
Emerging market banks .............................................................. 34
Outlook for the EM banking sector in 2012 ..................................................................... 34
China ........................................................................................... 35
Outlook summary and top picks ...................................................................................... 35
Chinese banks charts ....................................................................................................... 37
India ............................................................................................ 39
Outlook summary and top picks ...................................................................................... 39
Indian banks charts .......................................................................................................... 41
Korea ........................................................................................... 43
Outlook summary and top picks ...................................................................................... 43
Korean banks charts ......................................................................................................... 45
Indonesia .................................................................................... 47
Outlook summary and top picks ...................................................................................... 47
Indonesian banks charts ................................................................................................... 49
Malaysia ...................................................................................... 51
Outlook summary and top picks ...................................................................................... 51
Malaysian banks charts .................................................................................................... 53
Philippines ................................................................................... 55
Outlook summary and top picks ...................................................................................... 55
Philippine banks charts .................................................................................................... 57
Thailand ...................................................................................... 59
Outlook summary and top picks ...................................................................................... 59
Thai banks charts ............................................................................................................. 61
Regional valuation comparables ...................................................................................... 63
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