Developing countries should take steps to plan for a global economic meltdown on a par with 2008-09 if the European sovereign debt crisis escalated, the World Bank warned them today in its latest economic forecasts.

世界银行(World Bank)今天发布的最新经济预测发出警告，称如果欧洲主权债务危机升级，全球经济可能陷入2008年至2009年那种规模的危机，发展中国家应为此做好准备。

Predicting significantly slower global growth in 2012 than it expected last summer even if the eurozone muddled through its crisis, World Bank economists said that if financial markets denied funds to eurozone economies, global growth would be about 4 percentage points lower than even these figures with poorer economies far from immune.

世界银行的经济学家们预测，即使欧元区能勉强度过危机，2012年全球增长率仍将显著低于去年夏天时的预测值。如果金融市场拒绝向欧元区经济体提供资金，全球增长率甚至还会再低约4个百分点，富裕程度较低的经济体也会跟着遭殃。

Andrew Burns, head of macroeconomics at the bank, told journalists in London: “Developing countries should hope for the best and prepare for the worst.”

世行宏观经济负责人安德鲁•伯恩斯(Andrew Burns)在伦敦向记者们表示：“发展中国家应当抱最好的希望、做最坏的打算。”

Stressing the importance of contingency planning, he added: “An escalation of the crisis would spare no one. Developed and developing-country growth rates could fall by as much or more than in 2008-09.”

他补充强调，为意外情况做计划非常重要：“一旦危机升级，谁也逃不掉。发达国家和发展中国家的增长率跌幅可能达到甚至超过2008年至2009年危机期间跌幅。”

The world economy would find it much more difficult to grow out of a new economic crisis, the bank warned, because rich countries had little monetary or fiscal ammunition available to stem any vicious circle and poorer countries now had “much less abundant capital, less vibrant trade opportunities and weaker financial support for both private and public activity [than in 2009]”.

世界银行警告称，一旦发生新的经济危机，世界经济可能更难以走出困境，因为富国可用于阻断经济恶性循环的货币和财政“弹药”更少了，而富裕程度较低的国家如今“资金充裕度大大下降，贸易机会更少，可以为私人和公共活动提供的财政支持力度（相对于2009年）也小”。

The bank declined to predict how likely such a scenario was and added there was little that developing countries could do to prevent a severe crisis, but urged them to evaluate their vulnerability to a euro-led crisis.

世行拒绝预测发生这种情况的概率，并补充称，发展中国家在阻止重大危机发生方面能做的很少，但敦促发展中国家进行自我评估，一旦欧元危机升级为全球性危机，自身哪些方面易受影响。

Even without a descent into a fresh crisis, the bank’s economic forecasts are significantly lower than those in June 2011, reflecting downside risks seen last summer which have already materialised.

该行预测，即便不出现新的危机，经济增长率也将显著低于2011年6月的预测值，这表明去年夏天的经济下行风险如今已成为现实。

Using market exchange rates, the global economy is likely to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2012 and 3.1 per cent in 2013 compared with forecasts of 3.6 per cent for both years forecast only six months ago.

世界银行预测，按市场汇率计算，2012年全球经济增长率可能为2.5%，2013年可能为3.1%，而仅6个月前，这两年全球经济增长率的预测值还都是3.6%。

It expects the eurozone economy to contract in 2012 and other advanced economies to grow by only 2.1 per cent.

世行预测，2012年欧元区经济会收缩，其他发达经济体增长率将仅为2.1%。

The downgrade reflects heightened uncertainties over advanced economies, which might in turn reduce the growth of world trade and demand from poorer economies.

世界银行调低全球经济增长预测值，凸显出发达经济体面临的不确定性，这可能反过来导致世界贸易增长放缓、富裕程度较低国需求降低。

译者/吴蔚