1 论文标题 Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion

2 作者信息 Alan J. Auerbach, Yuriy Gorodnichenko

3 出处和链接http://www.nber.org/papers/w17447
NBER Working Paper No. 17884
Issued in March 2012
NBER Program(s):   IFM

4 摘要
In this paper, we estimate government purchase multipliers for a large number of OECD countries, allowing these multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and using real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. We adapt our previous methodology (Auerbach and Gorodnichenko, 2011) to use direct projections rather than the SVAR approach to estimate multipliers, to economize on degrees of freedom and to relax the assumptions on impulse response functions imposed by the SVAR method. Our findings confirm those of our earlier paper. In particular, GDP multipliers of government purchases are larger in recession, and controlling for real-time predictions of government purchases tends to increase the estimated multipliers of government purchases in recession. We also consider the responses of other key macroeconomic variables and find that these responses generally vary over the cycle as well, in a pattern consistent with the varying impact on GDP.


ps：最近在看财政支出理论的相关文献，跟踪而来的一些工作论文贴给需要的人看看。
        Fiscal Multipliers一直是财政支出理论研究的一个重点之一，包括Timesery的研究或DSGE和SVAR的研究很多，尤其是08年之后，一直停滞不前的财政理论研究开始有了许多新的进展和思路。此前看到一篇2011年9月JEL上的文章讲理论上现有的估计大都存在两个问题，一是线性建模的基础错误，往往文献都没考虑state dependence，导致Multipliers在Recession和Expansion没有区分；二是数据上的选择问题。这篇文章在方法和理论上都有所进展。
         其他一些相关的文献地址如下，都是老师推荐的较新的NBER Working Paper，其中一些已经在2012年发表了。

第一次发，请轻拍～欢迎大家积极探讨～～