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20120413 Follow Me 337 Spain Is on the Bleeding Edge of a New European Crisis
shenxiaoqiang
3980 33
2012-04-12
Spain Is on the Bleeding Edge of a New European Crisis

Things are unraveling in Europe at a startling pace. The country in the greatest danger is Spain, which could become the fourth member of the euro zone to require a bailout, following Greece, Ireland, and Portugal. Spain’s 709 billion euros of sovereign debt is roughly twice the debt of those three nations combined, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, so a rescue of Spain would be a heavy burden for the rest of Europe.

Investors got overconfident in Spain after the European Central Bank announced last December that it would funnel cheap, three-year loans to European banks, which they could (and did) use to invest in the debt of their own nations. The ECB lent more than 1 trillion euros. Spanish government 10-year yields, which were over 7 percent last November, plummeted to below 5 percent this January and February. They have raced back upward, to just below 6 percent in recent weeks.

Spain’s yields started jumping in early March, after Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy announced that the government budget deficit would miss the 4.4 percent of gross domestic product target that the previous administration had agreed to with the European Union. The problem is that the easy money from the ECB didn’t do anything to fix Spain’s fundamental problem—overindebtedness and an uncompetitive economy that, because of the common currency, can’t use depreciation as an escape hatch.

Bloomberg News reports today that Rajoy “is targeting basic public services for the first time since his election in December in a bid to convince investors he can bring order to the nation’s finances.”
But Mark Grant, a managing director at Southwest Securities in Fort Lauderdale, says that the education and health benefits that Rajoy wants to cut “do not totally come under the purview of the Spanish federal government.”

Writes Grant in a note to his customers today: “Even if the Federal government could get the cuts accomplished, it will take them months and perhaps months and months so that the headlines of what Spain is going to do has all of the substance of the milky froth atop some cup of coffee in Valencia that resembles a cappuccino.”
So not only does Spain have financial problems—it has Americans dissing its coffee.
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shenxiaoqiang
2012-4-12 17:32:48

Police clashed with protesters as Spanish workers staged a 24-hour general strike on March 29 against the government's new labor reforms, austerity cuts, and soaring unemployment
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shenxiaoqiang
2012-4-12 18:00:48
西班牙处在新一轮欧洲危机的最边缘

债务问题正以一个惊人的速度在欧洲被揭开。西班牙处于极度危险中，它有可能成为继希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙之后，欧元区第四个需要援助的成员。根据彭博社的数据，西班牙的7090亿欧元的主权债务大约这三个国家的债务加起来的两倍，因此援助西班牙对欧洲其他国家来说将是一个沉重的负担。

欧洲央行去年12月份宣布将注入便宜的三年贷款给欧洲的银行，它们可以（确实是）用这些贷款去投资本国的债务，在这之后，在西班牙投资者们变得过于自信。欧洲央行借出超过一万亿欧元。西班牙ZF的十年期国债收益率在去年十一月超过7%，今年一月和二月骤降至5%以下。它们竞相上涨，在最近几周还是仅低于6%。

在首相马里亚诺·拉霍伊后宣布ZF预算赤字将达不到上届ZF已同意欧盟（ZF预算赤字）占国内生产总值4.4%的目标后，西班牙的产出在三月初开始猛增，问题是，从欧洲央行很容易得到的钱对修复西班牙的过度负债和缺乏竞争力的经济这些根本问题，并没有起到任何作用，由于共同的货币，不能用贬值作为一个应急出口。


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mu_lianzheng
2012-4-12 19:28:45
您好,帖子的标题起错了,应该是20120413 Follow Me 337 Spain Is on the Bleeding Edge of a New European Crisis


Follow Us 发帖指南、常见问题及意见征集

https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-1131076-1-1.html



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shenxiaoqiang
2012-4-13 09:38:15
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happylife87
2012-4-13 09:47:19
Spain, Italy are still awaiting. It is really hard to say which one will be the next Greece.
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