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20120420 Follow Me344 Argentina Tries the Chávez Way
shenxiaoqiang
3555 25
2012-04-19
Argentina Tries the Chávez Way

It’s hard to believe now, but in the early 1980s, Argentina was perhaps the most promising and talked-about emerging market. Coming off the trauma of its Dirty War and military dictatorship, and its disastrous invasion of the Falkland Islands, democracy finally took root in 1983. Endowed with abundant natural resources, endless tracts of fertile land, and half-decent infrastructure, the then-167-year-old country projected upside to the investor community.

But Argentina regressed. In late 2001, as its economy collapsed, the country defaulted on $100 billion in debt and nationalized several enterprises. Argentina has since been a pariah state among international creditors. At the World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes, Argentina has more disputes pending against it than any other nation. Since 2003, rulers Néstor Kirchner and wife Cristina Fernández de Kirchner have nationalized $24 billion in private pensions and raided $6.6 billion in reserves from the central bank to make debt payments.

Now, Cristina Fernández (a widow since October 2010 and reelected by a landslide a year later) is seizing control of YPF, the former national oil monopoly that since 1999 has been majority-owned by Spain’s Repsol (REP). On Monday, she delivered a fire-and-brimstone speech on TV that blamed foreigners for the energy shortages plaguing the country—a rationalization for what would be the largest natural resource re-nationalization since Russia moved to seize Yukos in 2003. Fernández decreed that Argentina’s minister of planning and public investment would immediately assume the reins at YPF.

It’s not uncommon for leaders of developing countries to experience seller’s regret in the face of soaring commodity prices. In Venezuela, Hugo Chávez has practically turned expropriation into a sport. The trend has also caught on in Ecuador and Bolivia. Depending on their political standing and the state of their economies, governments in Latin America toggle between a bias toward state ownership and one in favor of private investor rights.

The appeal for Argentina to follow suit was strong. Since 1999, when YPF was sold, the price of crude oil has surged from the teens to more than $100 a barrel. Argentina’s oil reserves have declined about 18 percent over roughly the same period, according to the Argentine Oil and Gas Institute. In 2011, for the first time since YPF was privatized in the early 1990s, Argentina became a net importer of natural gas and oil. The government there blames Repsol for starving YPF of investment in order to pay out shareholder dividends.

The 59-year-old Fernández has recently been riding a wave of nationalist-fed popularity. This month, on the 30th anniversary of the war over the islands Argentina persists in calling Las Malvinas, she has been thumbing her nose at London. Her cabinet ministers have gone as far as to exhort companies to shun British imports.

This chest-thumping comes at a cost. Moneyed Argentines are parking their cash in Miami to avoid 23 percent inflation and the threat of creeping government expropriation. Also, since Fernández’s landslide reelection in October, Argentina’s borrowing costs have overtaken Venezuela’s. On Monday, when Fernández made her YPF announcement, the cost to insure against an Argentine default staged the biggest jump in the world, according to data provider CMA.

“Why did Cristina do this?” asks Jerry Haar, international finance professor at Florida International University. “Because she could. Having won reelection easily, and with Chávez and Fidel Castro both at death’s doorstep, her [ego] is soaring to new heights. As long as the price of commodities [is] high and without any effective internal challenge, Cristina can and will do whatever she pleases.”

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mu_lianzheng
2012-4-19 17:28:58
Argentina Tries the Chávez Way阿根廷尝试走查韦斯式道路

It’s hard to believe now, but in the early 1980s, Argentina was perhaps the most promising and talked-about emerging market. Coming off the trauma of its Dirty War and military dictatorship, and its disastrous invasion of the Falkland Islands, democracy finally took root in 1983. Endowed with abundant natural resources, endless tracts of fertile land, and half-decent infrastructure, the then-167-year-old country projected upside to the investor community.
现在很难相信，但是在20世纪80年代初，阿根廷也许是最有前途的和人们谈论最多的新兴市场。从阿根廷的“肮脏的战争”、军事独裁和入侵福克兰群岛导致的致命创伤中走出来，民主最终在1983年生根。这个拥有167年历史的国家依靠丰富的自然资源，无尽的大片肥沃土地和比较不错的基础设施，向投资者群体凸显着它的优势。
But Argentina regressed. In late 2001, as its economy collapsed, the country defaulted on $100 billion in debt and nationalized several enterprises. Argentina has since been a pariah state among international creditors. At the World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes, Argentina has more disputes pending against it than any other nation. Since 2003, rulers Néstor Kirchner and wife Cristina Fernández de Kirchner have nationalized $24 billion in private pensions and raided $6.6 billion in reserves from the central bank to make debt payments.
然而阿根廷随后陷入衰退。2001年年底，这个国家经济崩溃的时候，已经拖欠了1000亿美元的债务，并对几家企业实行国有化。自那时起,阿根廷已经处于被国际债权人排斥的状态。在世界银行国际中心部门解决的投资争端中，阿根廷是纠纷最多的一个国家。2003年以来，基什内尔和夫人克里斯蒂娜.费尔南德斯德基什内尔已经把240亿美元的私人养老金国有化，并从中央银行储备中挖取了66亿美元以偿还债务.
Now, Cristina Fernández (a widow since October 2010 and reelected by a landslide a year later) is seizing control of YPF, the former national oil monopoly that since 1999 has been majority-owned by Spain’s Repsol (REP). On Monday, she delivered a fire-and-brimstone speech on TV that blamed foreigners for the energy shortages plaguing the country—a rationalization for what would be the largest natural resource re-nationalization since Russia moved to seize Yukos in 2003. Fernández decreed that Argentina’s minister of planning and public investment would immediately assume the reins at YPF.
现在克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯（从2010年成为寡妇并在一年后以压倒性的优势连任）控制了以前的国家石油垄断公司YPF，这个前国家石油垄断企业自1999年以来一直由西班牙Repsol拥有多数股权而控制。周一一，她在电视上发表了一个充满了火药味的讲话，指责外国投资人导致了阿根廷在能源上饱受短缺的困扰。自俄罗斯2003年要求抓住尤科斯，这（克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯的讲话）将成为最大的关于自然资源国有化的强辩。费尔南德斯下令阿根廷的规划和公共投资部长立即承担掌控YPF公司的责任。It’s not uncommon for leaders of developing countries to experience seller’s regret in the face of soaring commodity prices. In Venezuela, Hugo Chávez has practically turned expropriation intoa sport. The trend has also caught on in Ecuador and Bolivia. Depending on their political standing and the state of their economies, governments in Latin America toggle between a bias toward state ownership and one in favor of private investor rights.
对于发展中国家领导来说,在商品价格飙升的情况下去切身体验卖方的抱怨并不常见。在委内瑞拉，乌戈·查韦斯几乎冒险行为转变成了一种运动。这样的趋势在厄瓜多尔和玻利维亚的也呈现出来了。根据他们的政治地位和经济状况，拉丁美洲ZF对国家所有和保护私人投资者权利之间摇摆不定.The appeal for Argentina to follow suit was strong. Since 1999, when YPF was sold, the price of crude oil has surged from the teens to more than $100 a barrel. Argentina’s oil reserves have declined about 18 percent over roughly the same period, according to the Argentine Oil and Gas Institute. In 2011, for the first time since YPF was privatized in the early 1990s, Argentina became a net importer of natural gas and oil. The government there blames Repsol for starving YPF of investment in order to pay out shareholder dividends.
对于阿根廷来说，效仿的吸引力很大。自1999年YPF被出售以来，原油价格已经从低位飙升到了每桶超过100美元。根据阿根廷的石油和天然气研究所的数据，阿根廷的石油储量在同期几乎下降了大约18％。2011年，在YPF在90年代初期实行私有化后，阿根廷首次成为原油和汽油的进口国，ZF指责雷普索尔导致YPF投资低迷，而将钱用于为股东分红。The 59-year-old Fernández has recently been riding a wave of nationalist-fed popularity. This month, on the 30th anniversary of the war over the islands Argentina persists in calling Las Malvinas, she has been thumbing her nose at London. Her cabinet ministers have gone as far as to exhort companies to shun British imports.
59岁的费尔南德斯最近处于民粹主义的风口浪尖。本月正直阿根廷与英国间马尔维纳斯岛战争三十周年，阿根廷坚持声称拥有马尔维纳斯岛的主权，阿根廷已经藐视伦敦了。她的内阁部长们已经尽可能鼓励公司最大程度避免从英国进口物品。This chest-thumping comes at a cost. Moneyed Argentines are parking their cash in Miami to avoid 23 percent inflation and the threat of creeping government expropriation. Also, since Fernández’s landslide reelection in October, Argentina’s borrowing costs have overtaken Venezuela’s. On Monday, when Fernández made her YPF announcement, the cost to insure against an Argentine default staged the biggest jump in the world, according to data provider CMA.

这种过于骄傲的态度是终将付出代价的，富裕的阿根廷人将其现金存放在迈阿密，以便避免23%的通货膨胀率以及ZF不知不觉到来的征税威胁。此外，自从费尔南德斯在十月份以压倒性优势连任以来，阿根廷的借贷成本已经超过了委内瑞拉。周一，根据数据提供商CMA,当费尔南德斯发表了私有化YPF的讲话，保证阿根廷不拖欠成本,这创造了世界上最大的跨越。
“Why did Cristina do this?” asks Jerry Haar, international finance professor at Florida International University. “Because she could. Having won reelection easily, and with Chávez and Fidel Castro both at death’s doorstep, her [ego] is soaring to new heights. As long as the price of commodities [is] high and without any effective internal challenge, Cristina can and will do whatever she pleases.”

当佛罗里达国际大学国际金融学教授杰里·哈尔问道“克里斯蒂娜为什么没有这样做？”。他说， “因为她可以做到,她轻松赢得连任，并与查韦斯和卡斯特罗都处在死亡边缘，她已经上升到了新的高度。只要商品价格飙升，并且没有任何实质上的内部挑战，克里斯蒂娜能做到并且将做处任何她高兴做的事。”


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shenxiaoqiang
2012-4-19 17:31:22
文章划线部分将征集翻译，参与者均可获得奖励，并选出最佳翻译

可以看看阿根廷

数字1到6代表收入等级，横轴代表1960的收入情况，纵轴代表2008年的情况。坐标代表每个国家50年来的对比。离对角线越近说明对比越不明显，也就是收入变化程度越低，比如美国。而中心那个红框代表处于中等收入水平，而且离对角线越近说明一直保持着中等收入状况没什么大的变化，也就是所谓的中等收入陷阱，比如巴西。
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shenxiaoqiang
2012-4-19 17:32:20
mu_lianzheng 发表于 2012-4-19 17:28
楼主,题目应该是20120420 Follow Me 344 Argentina Tries the Chávez Way
呵呵，时间倒流了



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shenxiaoqiang
2012-4-19 22:57:13
    现在很难相信，但在20世纪80年代初，阿根廷也许是最有前途的和被谈论最多的新兴市场。从它（阿根廷）的“肮脏的战争”、军事独裁和灾难性的入侵福克兰群岛的创伤中走出来，民主最终在1983年生根。拥有丰富的自然资源，无尽的大片肥沃的土地和看得过去的基础设施，这个当时167年的国家向投资者群体凸显着它的优势。
    但是，阿根廷倒退了。在2001年年底，当其经济崩溃，该国拖欠了1000亿美元的债务，并国有化了几家企业。阿根廷已经自那时起一直处于国际债权人之间的贱民状态。在世界银行为解决投资争端的国际中心，阿根廷凭借它（债务拖欠和国有化）有比其他任何国家更多的纠纷。自2003年以来，基什内尔和夫人克里斯蒂娜费尔南德斯德基什内尔统治者已国有化240亿美元的私人养老金，并从央行储备中“掠夺”6.6亿美元，以偿还债务。

     现在，克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯（从2010年成为遗孀并以一年后以压倒性的胜利连任）控制了以前的国家石油垄断企业YPF公司，自1999年以来一直由西班牙Repsol（REP）拥有多数股权而控制。在星期一，她在电视上发表了一个充满火药味的讲话，指责外国（投资）人导致了困扰阿根廷的能源短缺。自俄罗斯2003年要求抓住尤科斯，这（克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯的讲话）是为将成为最大的自然资源国有化的强辩。费尔南德斯下令阿根廷的规划和公共投资部长将立即承担掌控YPF公司的责任。

   当面对物价飞涨，去体会卖方的遗憾对于发展中国家的领导人是不常见。乌戈·查韦斯在委内瑞拉，几乎将征用已经变成一种运动。在厄瓜多尔和玻利维亚的趋势也展现出来了。根据他们的政治地位和他们的经济状况，拉丁美洲的ZF在对国家所有和保护私人投资者权利的偏见之间（来回）切换。
    对于阿根廷来说，如法炮制（对私有产权的偏见）的吸引力很大。自1999年YPF被出售，原油价格已经从低价上升到每桶超过100美元。根据阿根廷的石油和天然气研究所（数据显示），阿根廷的石油储量，几乎在同一时期下降了约18％。在2011年，自从YPF在90年代早期被私有化后，阿根廷首次成为天然气和石油的净进口国，ZF指责雷普索尔使YPF投资短缺，而（将钱）用于支付股东分红。

   59岁的费尔南德斯最近已经处于民粹主义的风口浪尖。在这个月阿根廷与英国因为马岛的战争的三十周年之际，阿根廷坚持声称拥有马岛的主权，她已经藐视伦敦了。她的内阁部长们已经尽可能去鼓励公司去避免从英国进口。

   这种过于骄傲的态度是要付出代价的，有钱的阿根廷人都将他们的现金存放在迈阿密，用来避免23%的通货膨胀和ZF不知不觉到来的征收威胁。此外，自从费尔南德斯在十月压倒性的连任，阿根廷的借贷成本已经超过了委内瑞拉。周一，当费尔南德斯发表了私有化YPF的讲话，根据数据提供商CMA，保证阿根廷的不拖欠的成本上演了世界上最大的跳跃。

   当问佛罗里达国际大学国际金融学教授杰里·哈尔，“克里斯蒂娜为什么没有这样做呢？”。他说， “因为她可以。轻松赢得连任，并与查韦斯和卡斯特罗都在死亡的家门口，她的[自我]上升到新的高度。只要商品价格高，并且没有任何有效的内部挑战，克里斯蒂娜能做并将做任何她高兴的事。”











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hope.
2012-4-20 07:49:02
Since 1999, when YPF was sold, the price of crude oil has surged from the teens to more than $100 a barrel. Argentina’s oil reserves have declined about 18 percent over roughly the same period, according to the Argentine Oil and Gas Institute. In 2011, for the first time since YPF was privatized in the early 1990s, Argentina became a net importer of natural gas and oil. The government there blames Repsol for starving YPF of investment in order to pay out shareholder dividends.

自从1999年YPF公司被出售后，原油价格已经从低价飙升到每桶100美元以上。据阿根廷油气研究机构的数据，在大约同一时期，阿根廷的石油储备下降了18%左右。自从90年代初YPF公司被私有化后，2011年阿根廷第一次成为天然气和石油的净进口国。该国ZF指责雷普索而为支付股东股息而减少YPF的投资。
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