In my opinion, it is no doubt that Yangzi river delta region is the best and will be the best developed regions for a long time.
First, the foundation is the best among the three eastern economic regions, Shanghai use to be one of the most opened city in East Asia, and more developed than Hong Kong before 1949. Shanghai has good industry foundation before and after 1949. Zhejiang and Jiangsu province are also well known as “ land rich in fish and rice” with their particular favorable nature conditions. Compare with Yangzi river delta region, Jingjinji Region is too cold and Pearl delta region is too hot to develop, the geography condition are also not as good and Yangzi river delta region.
Second, the region has good human capital. Many universities and institutes located in Shanghai, Hangzhou and Nanjing can provide sound support to firms the region development. By comparison, Pearl delta region is quite short of good local human capitals. Only Beijing, the capital of China, can rival the Yangzi region, however the relation between industry and university’s relation is not so good, the technology can’t transform into high value commodities efficiently in Jingjinji region.
Third, the region enjoys high level of marketlization and globalization. Since open reform policy in 1978, large quantity of FDI poured in the region, the FDI does not only solve the capital deficiency problem, but also drive many civil enterprises developed with swift race. The FDI can have positive knowledge spillover to local firms by agglomeration and interaction. Pearl delta region has more export-oriented economics since it adjacent to Hong Kong and Macau. However, study has shown that local enterprise can absorb the knowledge and technology spillover efficiently only if it has good technique basement. The Pearl delta region, which developed from simple processing industries using cheap labor and land, apparently don’t have good potential to absorb the spillover. The foreign industries don’t embed in the region, once external condition changed, they may flow to other regions. As indicated by many Taiwan enterprises move from Dongguan to Suzhou in recent years.
Fourth, the Yangzi delta region has the best developed urbanization system. It has proper number of large middle, small cities. So large city can easily bring along the less advance cities and lead the whole region develops. Jingjinji lack of mid-level cities and Pearl delta region lack of enough small cities. What’s more, because mountains exist in north area of Guangdong province, the Pearl delta region can’t extent smoothly to the north areas.
In all, I think Yangzi river region will be distinguished from any other regions in China for a long time. I agree that Jingjinji region will have a good prospect because of Binhai new area development which heavily supported by central government. I don’t think it has good prospect as Pudong district. All the development must be attribute to market rather than government. The government can only help to set up a good market environment rather than help plan the regions. The Jingjinji region obvious has a long time to build good market environment, it may be even long time to catch up with Yangzi delta region.
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[此贴子已经被tryee于2007-9-30 10:31:30编辑过]
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