雷曼兄弟－2007年亚洲油轮运输股展望

Transportation－Facing stiff headwinds

17页　　英文 February 06, 2007

Summary
􀂉 Supply ramp-up: A re-acceleration in tanker fleet growth from 5.1% in 2006 to 5.8% is likely to put further downward pressure on
freight rates in 2007. If the industry does not scrap any vessels this year, supply could grow as much as 7.2%.
􀂉 Demand growth deceleration: Ton-mile tanker demand growth is set to slow from 4.1% in 2006E to 3.4% in 2007E, despite
average voyages lengthening. Our cautious view on demand is driven by low export volume growth expectations, underpinned by our
oil team’s conservative production growth estimate of 0.5% yoy.
􀂉 Rates to decline: We expect tanker rates to decline by 20% on average yoy in 2007E, following last year’s 8% decline. The worsethan-
expected rate deterioration is likely to lead to earnings disappointment and share price weakness, in our view.
􀂉 Top pick: We believe that MISC shares (1-Overweight) look oversold. Our analysis suggests that the market is ascribing no value for
the tanker business, which looks too pessimistic, even for those of us that are cautious on tankers.
􀂉 Avoid: In our view, China Merchants Energy Shipping stock (3-Underweight) stock is an interesting way to gain exposure to China’s
burgeoning LNG shipping industry. However, valuations appear to be very demanding on a 12-month view. Separately, we believe
that China Shipping Development shares (3-Underweight) look overvalued.
􀂉 Risks: Our cautious view could be derailed by any number of factors, including, but not limited to, stronger-than-expected