The global economy will gradually recover in 2012 from thetrough in 2011Q4. The rebound will be most pronounced in Asia. At the other extreme, Europe will undergo a mild recession.

Risks to the global outlook are strongly tilted to the downside,as the European crisis continues. Current oil prices representonly a moderate threat to global growth.

There have been some advances to solve the European crisis,but crucial steps are still pending: a more credible sovereignfirewall, a roadmap to a fiscal union and a pro-growth agenda.

Emerging economies are on track for a soft landing. Strongdomestic demand will be helped by growth-supportive policiesin Asia and high commodity prices in Latin America.