针对一个时间序列,构建如下模型:
y=c+ut
ut= Øut-1+sar(12)
其中 ut-1代表时间趋势序列,sar(12)为以月为单位的季节自回归,运用eviews5.0软件分析结果如下:
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
| Variable | Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. |
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
| C | 3124.139 | 310.6497 | 10.05679 | 0.0000 |
| AR(1) | 0.412785 | 0.165567 | 2.493164 | 0.0180 |
| SAR(12) | 0.700065 | 0.137453 | 5.093143 | 0.0000 |
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
| R-squared | 0.585967 | Mean dependent var | 2833.486 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.560090 | S.D. dependent var | 396.2736 |
| S.E. of regression | 262.8312 | Akaike info criterion | 14.06272 |
| Sum squared resid | 2210567. | Schwarz criterion | 14.19603 |
| Log likelihood | -243.0976 | F-statistic | 22.64431 |
| Durbin-Watson stat | 1.776984 | Prob(F-statistic) | 0.000001 |
请教,最后的方程怎么写?