中银国际：工商银行 深度研究

BOCI：ICBC－Brighter days ahead

(21页 英文) 6 March 2007

In our opinion, improving asset quality and non-interest income will continue to drive up the profitability of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC). As we are more optimistic about ICBC’s growth outlook, we have raised our earnings forecast by 4% for 2007 and 19% for 2008. We have arrived at a target price of HK$4.77 for the H shares. Likewise, we have lifted our target price for the A shares to Rmb5.67 from Rmb4.48. We have upgraded our ratings for both ICBC’s H and A shares to Outperform.

Table of Contents
INVESTMENT SUMMARY.......................................... 3
VALUATION......................................................... 4
BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN ASSET QUALITY. 7
IMPACT OF TIGHTER MONETARY POLICY .................. 10
BENEFITING FROM DISINTERMEDIATION ................... 12
SCARCITY OF LARGE BANKS .................................. 13
APPENDIX I. FINANCIAL ESTIMATES ......................... 14
LISTED COMPANIES IN THIS REPORT ........................ 19