Citigroup 花旗：亚太地区投资策略：让模型说话(48页)

The Asia Investigator：Outside the Box, Let the Models Speak

22 January 2007 | 48 pages

Citigroup Global Markets | Equity Research

 Asia equity strategy: increased valuation concerns but momentum support –
Our models that are predominately momentum-driven suggest that momentum
is intact in Asian markets. Our MACD model suggests investors avoid Korea and
Thailand. Our biggest Overweights within an Asian portfolio remain banks,
utilities and telecoms. We remain Underweight base cyclicals, manufacturing
and technology.
 Korea equity strategy: new regulations will likely hit banks, consumers and real
estate – New regulations setting 40% limits on debt-to-income and loan-to-value
(LTV) and limiting borrowers to one mortgage could push mortgage loan growth
from 14% in 2006 to negative figures in 2008. We think the large Korean banks
could see their earnings fall 7-10%. Property prices, meanwhile, should begin
stabilizing or even weaken in the coming three years as collateral is sold off.
 Malaysia equity strategy: moderate index increases but ride the upcycles – For
2007, we expect a rise of 5.7% to 1169 points. That said, market conditions
appear healthy with interest switching into special situational stocks. After a 3-
year infrastructure spending slump, Malaysia appears ready to pump-prime
under the 9th Malaysia Plan. This, alongside a benign interest rate and inflation
outlook, should support GDP

[此贴子已经被vbbill于2007-3-11 9:36:59编辑过]