花旗：A股预计将调整30％，对GDP和周边的影响分析

Asia Macro Views How Would an A-Share Correction Affect Asia?

31-May-07 8页

Key points
➤ Unless the Chinese government takes continuous policy action, the
recent A-share market correction will likely be temporary. But for the
purpose of analyzing the likely impact, in this study we assume a
hypothetical 30% decline in A-share prices
➤ A 30% correction could, at the maximum, reduce retail sales growth
by 3ppts and slow GDP growth by around 1ppt. Implications for bank
loan quality are likely to be limited, but property prices could
increase more rapidly
➤ The most important risk would probably be social instability, as the
30m investors would blame the government for the correction. This is
the key reason why we think further policy action will be constrained
➤ An A-share market correction could affect market sentiment around
the region, but in the end the key channel of transmission would be
through real sector activities, not financial flows, as China still
maintains relatively strict capital account controls
➤ Asian economic growth could slow, most notably in Hong Kong, as a
result of slower Chinese growth