Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance1
Eugene F. Fama* Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, USA Received 17 March 1997; revised 3 October 1997. Available online 15 May 2000.
Abstract
Market efficiency survives the challenge from the literature on long-term return anomalies. Consistent with the market efficiency hypothesis that the anomalies are chance results, apparent overreaction to information is about as common as underreaction, and post-event continuation of pre-event abnormal returns is about as frequent as post-event reversal. Most important, consistent with the market efficiency prediction that apparent anomalies can be due to methodology, most long-term return anomalies tend to disappear with reasonable changes in technique.
Author Keywords: Market efficiency; Behavioral finance
JEL classification codes: G14; G12
1The comments of Brad Barber, David Hirshleifer, S.P. Kothari, Owen Lamont, Mark Mitchell, Hersh Shefrin, Robert Shiller, Rex Sinquefield, Richard Thaler, Theo Vermaelen, Robert Vishny, Ivo Welch, and a referee have been helpful. Kenneth French and Jay Ritter get special thanks.
*Corresponding author. Tel.: 773 702 7282; fax: 773 702 9937; e-mail: eugene.fama@gsb.uchicago.edu.