不只是一场泡沫，更是一场闹剧 ——高盛台湾市场分析

Chinese A-share market frenzy –A “Dejavu”of Taiwan’s stock bubble in 1980s?

June 2007 34页 英文

takeawaysTaiwan market: Some market records were set during the late 1980s/early 1990s•TWSE index reached record high of 12,682 points on Feb. 10, 1990before dropping by 80% in less than 8 months to 2,485 points on Oct. 1, 1990. TWSE index is at 8,304 points now, 35% below the peak in 1990.•Despite smaller market cap (around US$100 bnby the end of 1990), its market turnover rate was leading most of the worldwide stock markets at around 5.3 times of average market cap.•Consequences of relentless buying at high multiples could be disastrous. Similarity•Fast-growth period:Taiwan delivered 16% GDP CAGR from 1985 to 1995 and Chinese economy is growing at an above-trend rate of >10%.•Appreciating currency:New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) appreciated by 34% from 1986 to 1989 and Chinese Yuan (CNY) has gained over 8% since the initial revaluation in July 2005.•Sanguine retail investors’participation:Rapid increase in investor account and buoyant market turnover velocity ratio led to rising valuations.•Government intervention:Both governments had implemented administrative policies to cool down the market, but long-term effectiveness seems to be in question.Difference•Openness:Taiwan was a close market back then but China is arguably more integrated to global financial platforms (QFII