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2005-05-07
哪位高材生或者老师能把这个翻译出来吗?看的实在是一头雾水阿—_—!!!

消费理论六大难题
(1) excess sensitivity puzzle:
If one follows an average household over its life cycle, two main stylized facts
emerge (see Attanasio (1999) for the detailed figures). First, disposable income
follows a hump over the life cycle, with a peak around the age of 45 (the age of
the household is defined by the age of the household head). This finding is hardly
surprising, given that at young ages households tend to obtain formal education
or training on the job and labor force participation of women is low because
of child bearing and rearing. As more and more agents finish their education
and learn on the job as well as promotions occur, average wages within the
cohort increase. Average personal income at age 45 is almost 2.5 times as highas average personal income at age 25. After the age of 45 personal income first
slowly, then more rapidly declines as more and more people retire and labor
productivity (and thus often wages) fall. The average household at age 65 has
only 60% of the personal income that the average household at age 45 obtains.
The second main finding is the surprising finding. Not only personal income,
but also consumption follows a hump over the life cycle. In other words, consumption
seems to track income over the life cycle fairly closely. This is one
statement of the so-called excess sensitivity puzzle: consumption appears
to be excessively sensitive to predicted changes in income. In fact, the two
standard theories of intertemporal consumption allocation we will consider in
the next section both predict that (under specific assumptions spelled out explicitly
below) consumption follows a martingale and current income does not
help to forecast future consumption. The hump-shaped consumption age pro-
…le apparently seems to contradict this hypothesis. Later in the course we will
investigate whether, once we control for household size (which also happens to
follow a hump shape), the hump-shape in consumption disappears or whether
the puzzle persists.

(2). Excess Smoothness Puzzle:
if the stochastic income process of households
is only di¤erence stationary (say, it follows a random walk) then a shock to
current income translates (more than) one to one into a shock to permanent
income and hence should induce a large shock to consumption. With
di¤erence-stationary income processes consumption should be as volatile
as current income, but we saw that, at least on the aggregate level, consumption
is smoother than income. Is in fact consumption “too smooth”.
This is the excess smoothness puzzle

(3). Lack of Decumulation Puzzle:
Household level wealth data show that a
significant fraction of very old households still hold a large portfolio of
financial and real estate assets. Why don’t these households decumulate
their assets and enhance their consumption, as standard life-cycle theory
predicts?

(4). Drop of Consumption Puzzle:
As people retire, their consumption drops by about 15% on average.

(5). Portfolio Allocation Puzzle:
The median wealth US household does not
own stocks, but holds its major fraction of the wealth portfolio concentrated
in its own home and the rest in low-return checking or savings
accounts. This is despite the fact that returns to equity and returns to
human capital (i.e. the households’ wage) are roughly uncorrelated for
this fraction of the population. In addition, Gross and Souleles (2000)
document that a signi…cant fraction of the population has simultaneously
high-interest credit card debt and liquid, low return assets such as a signifi
cantly positive checking account balance.

(6). Default Puzzle:
the US legal system allows private households to file for
personal bankruptcy under Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy
Code. In particular, under Chapter 7 households are discharged of all their
debts, are not required to use any of their future labor income to repay
the debt and can even keep their assets (financial or real estate) below a
state-dependent exemption level. Whereas about 1% of all households per
year file for personal bankruptcy, White (1998) computes that currently
at least 15% of all US households would financially benefit from filing for
bankruptcy.
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2005-5-23 01:16:00

6。违约之谜

美国司法体系允许私人家庭根据美国破产法案第七款和第十一款申请个人破产。特别地,根据第七款,家庭可以任意举债而无需用未来的劳动收入来偿还,甚至可以在国家规定的豁免范围内保留他们的金融资产和不动产。尽管美国每年大约有1%的家庭申请个人破产,但是统计表明当前至少有15%的美国家庭从破产中得到经济实惠。

这个简单所以我就翻译了遗训阿
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2005-5-25 03:27:00

楼主,我是搞消费理论研究的,对这方面比较熟悉。你提出的问题出自Consumption and Saving: Theory and Evidence(by Dirk Krueger, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania May 2004)碰巧我去年看过该文,又对此有兴趣,今天就试着翻译了一下,并加注了一些我个人的理解。水平不高,还请原谅!另外,消费理论有本重要的参考书:

Angus Deaton, Understanding Consumption, Oxford University Press, 1992.

1、消费的“过度敏感性”之谜:如果一个家庭在其整个生命周期中遵循一个平均化家庭(或代表性家庭)的行为,那么两个主要的典型事实便会出现。一是家庭可支配收入的生命周期曲线呈驼峰型,并在大约45岁时达到峰值(家庭年龄以户主年龄来定义)。如果考虑到一个年青家庭的成员通常会接受正规教育或工作培训,并且女户主也因为生育小孩而降低劳动参与这一事实,我们就几乎不会对此感到吃惊。随着越来越多的家庭成员完成他们的教育和学习如何更好地去工作,并伴随着晋职,该家庭组的平均工资就会上升。家庭在45岁时的平均收入相当于其25岁时的2.5倍。45岁以后家庭收入开始缓慢下降,并随着更多的家庭成员退休和劳动生产力的下降而急剧下滑,在65岁时其收入只有45岁时的60%。第二个发现则令我们大惑不解。不仅个人收入曲线在整个生命周期中呈现出驼峰型,而且消费曲线也是如此。换句话说,消费在生命周期中看似会紧密地追踪收入,这就是所谓的“过度敏感性”之谜(“过度敏感性”假设),即消费对收入的可预期变化“过度敏感”。实际上,我们将在下一部分详细讲解的两个标准的跨期消费配置理论在一系列特定假设下都表明消费遵循一个鞅过程,当期收入无助于预测未来消费,驼峰型消费—年龄曲线显然与这一假设矛盾。在本课程的后面部分我们将详细讨论一旦控制了驼峰型的家庭规模以后,驼峰型家庭消费生命周期曲线是否会消失或者“过度敏感性”假设是否继续成立。

注:消费的“过度敏感性”和“过度平滑性”都是针对标准的LC-PIH理论提出的,按照该理论消费是一个鞅过程,消费波动(Innovation)或鞅差分表示实际消费与前一时期预期的消费之差,因此它对任何用来预测实际消费的变量都是正交的,反映了未预期到的收入变动。以前各时期的的收入和当期收入提供的收入变动信息已经通过对持久收入波动的影响引起消费的变动,因此它们无助于对未来消费变动的预测。实际上,凡是收入的可预测变动都会通过影响持久收入波动而使消费得到及时调整,而不可预测的收入变动产生不可预测的消费变动。因而,消费是不可预测的,但消费又比收入波动更加平滑。然而,如果我们放松标准LC-PIH理论的特定假设,引入流动性约束和预防性动机,收入的可预测变动就不会使当期消费立即按照持久性收入进行调整,而是要和收入一齐变动,即预测收入将变动,消费也将变动,这就是消费对收入的“过度敏感性”。

2、消费的“过度平滑性”之谜:如果家庭的随机收入过程只是差分静态的(也就是随机游走),持久收入对当期收入冲击的反应将大于1比1,于是会对未来消费产生更大的冲击。在收入过程为差分静态的假定下,消费应该与当期收入一样不稳定,但我们至少在总量水平上可以发现消费实际上比收入更加平滑。消费对收入波动是如此平滑,这就是消费的“过度平滑性”之谜。

注:“过度平滑性”恰好相反,如果劳动收入是差分静态的,当期收入的一个小变动就可能会带来持久收入的大变动,从而消费比收入波动更大,但总量数据否定了这一假设:通常总消费变动的标准差要小于总收入变动的标准差。

3、“老年家庭资产是否减少”之谜(或“老年家庭不处置资产”之谜):家庭财富数据表明相当一部分老年家庭仍然持有大量的金融和不动产投资组合。为什么这些家庭没有像标准的生命周期消费理论预测的那样在年老时处置他们的资产以增加其消费呢? 注:家庭数据根本不能够清楚指明在老年家庭之间,资产是否在减少。 4、“消费下降”之谜:随着人们退休,他们的消费平均下降了大约15%。 5、“资产组合选择”之谜:美国的中产家庭通常不持有股票等金融资产,其大部分资产组合集中于家庭房地产,剩下的便是低回报率的支票或储蓄帐户。尽管对这部分人来说,证券回报与人力资本回报(例如,家庭工资)是大致不相关的。另外,Gross和Souleles(2000)指出相当一部分人拥有低回报的资产,例如把钱存在利率极低的支票帐户上,而同时又在很高利率上用信用卡借款。 注:该问题属于消费与金融的关系问题。

第6个谜我觉得yanzi0715翻译得可以,就不再翻了。文中几个关键的技术词汇:martingales 鞅过程;difference stationarity 差分静态 income age profile 收入-年龄曲线 consumption age profile 消费-年龄曲线 equity 证券

[此贴子已经被作者于2005-5-25 3:39:08编辑过]

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2005-5-25 17:43:00
奖励楼上现金200元,希望楼上继续支持本版学术,今后如生活拮据,可随时与我联系。
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2005-5-25 17:54:00

3楼的翻译有值得商榷之处。

1、are discharged of 翻译成“任意举债”似不妥,容易令人误解此处债务为未发生之事,实际此处是指已有债务可以免除。

2、would financially benefit 翻译成“可以……得到经济实惠”好一些,因为此处要表达可行但未成现实之意。

这两处是小问题,但是state-dependent 翻译成“国家规定”就完全不对了,应该是“状态依存”的意思,也即,豁免水平不是一刀切,而是以各人经济情况而定。

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2005-5-31 00:18:00

太感谢了 我还以为不会有人有这种刻苦钻研精神了,真是太感谢你了!!!

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