【导言】印度的投资级信用评级面临降级的危险，财政部长尼亚潘•奇丹巴拉姆应采取更为有效的措施促进经济的发展。

India’s credit rating

印度的信用评级

Don’t call me junk

别叫我垃圾

India’s battle to retain its investment-grade credit rating

为保投资级信用评级，印度将负隅抵抗

Oct 13th 2012 | MUMBAI | from the print edition

DURING Palaniappan Chidambaram’s second stint as India’s finance minister, in January 2007, India had the satisfaction of getting a credit-rating upgrade. After a bout of fast growth and encouraging noises from the government about its finances, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) boosted India’s rating to BBB-, the lowest rung of investment grade. Today, on his third stint running the ministry of broken dreams, Mr Chidambaram must stop a lurch back to “junk” status. Both S&P and Fitch warned earlier this year that they might lower India’s score given slow growth, a lack of reform and high borrowing. On October 10th, S&P reiterated there was at least a one-in-three chance of a downgrade. (Moody’s, a third agency, is less grumpy.)

2007年1月，此时正值帕拉尼亚潘•奇丹巴拉姆二度担任财政部长一职，印度因信用评级的提高而满心欢喜。一阵强势增长，加上ZF对国家财政的刺激性言论，标准普尔将印度的投资级信用评级提高至入门级BBB-。现如今，美梦破碎，三任财长的奇丹巴拉姆必须将印度从“垃圾”级的边缘拯救回来。鉴于发展缓慢，改革无期以及债台高筑，标普和惠誉今年早些时候都向印度发出降级警告。10月10日，标普重申降级概率至少是1/3。（另一家评级机构穆迪则相关比较乐观。）

A downgrade would not in itself cause a crisis. The government-bond market is dominated by local banks and insurance firms which are forced to buy thanks to liquidity and solvency rules. They will hoover up bonds, whatever their rating. The central bank is buying freely, too. It owns 18% of all government bonds, almost double the level of two years ago. Indian firms are perfectly capable of operating abroad if a downgrade happens. Tata Sons’ takeover of Corus, a British steel firm, was plotted when S&P rated India “junk”.

降级本身不会引发危机。因受资金流动性及债务偿还规定的约束，购买ZF债券的主要是本地银行和保险公司。对它们而言，大量获取债券远比评级来得重要。占有18%（两年前的两倍）ZF债券的中央银行在购买债券时也不会考虑评级问题。尽管评级降低，印度企业在国外市场上依旧能生龙活虎。塔塔桑收购康力斯（一家英国钢铁公司）的企划就是在标普将印度评为“垃圾”级时拟定的。

Still, an investment-grade rating is handy if, like India, you run a current-account deficit and hope to attract foreigners to help finance your vast infrastructure needs over the next decade. In September the government announced a batch of reforms designed to shore up confidence, for example by relaxing rules for foreign supermarkets. Mr Chidambaram, who took up his post in August, has tried to maintain momentum by, among other things, hinting he will reverse a retroactive tax on Vodafone, a telecoms firm. Tim Geithner, America’s treasury secretary, gamely hailed the changes as “very significant”.

只要经常账户赤字存在，同时ZF又希望在未来的十年里通过吸引外资满足巨大基础设施建设的需要，恰如印度现状一样，还是能将投资级评级控于股掌之间的。9月份，印度ZF推行了一系列旨在重振信心的改革，诸如放松与国外超市相关的规定。于8月份任职的奇丹巴拉姆试图通过撤销电信公司沃达丰的追溯征税等措施维持发展势头。美国财政部秘书蒂姆﹒盖纳特极力赞扬这些改变“影响深远”。

In response Indian shares and the rupee have leapt. Foreign portfolio investors have rushed in. And the best proxy for India’s sovereign risk—the credit-default-swap premium on debt issued by State Bank of India, a state-backed lender—has fallen to less scary levels (see chart).

刺激政策使得印度股票上涨，卢比增值，一大批国外证券投资者纷纷涌入。作为衡量主权风险的最优指标，由印度国家银行（国有放债银行）发行的信用违约交换溢价债务回落到相对缓和的水平（见图表）。




But whether India has really got its house in order, and been saved from a return to junk status, is less clear. The biggest worry is the public finances. They have a distinctly European feel, even if India is still growing faster than most countries (the latest IMF estimate for 2012 is 4.9%). The deficit, including the states, is about 9% of GDP and gross debt stands at almost 70%. India is in far worse shape than other big emerging economies with similar ratings. During the go-go years that could be overlooked because the debt-to-GDP ratio was still falling thanks to rapid growth. No longer. The IMF now forecasts that India’s ratio barely dips over the next half-decade.

不过，印度究竟能否涉险过关，避免横遭“垃圾”级厄运还不得而知。最令人担忧的就是公共财政。即使印度的发展势头远比其他国家要快（国际货币基金组织最新预计2012GDP增长将为4.9%），其公共财政给人的印象却是欧洲国家的水平。财政赤字（包含各邦）占GDP总额的9%，同时债务总额几乎占到了70%。与其他同等级别的主要新兴经济体相比，印度的境况简直是一团糟。不过，在经济繁荣的年代里，迅猛的发展使债务占GDP的比重不断拉低，上述种种又算得了什么呢。国际货币基金组织预计未来五年内印度的债务比不会触底。

Talk is cheap on fiscal matters in India. A decade ago the country put in place a legal framework to make politicians run a tighter ship. They ignored it. So far the government has only flirted with decisive action. It has made a tweak to fuel subsidies that was as politically painful as it was financially marginal. It has welcomed the report of a committee of the great and good that warned of a repeat of the financial crisis of 1991. What it has not yet done is act, a task made harder by national elections, due by 2014, which will lead to pressure to spend. If Mr Chidambaram manages material cuts to borrowing levels, despite the electoral timetable, he will surely save India’s credit rating—and rewrite the political rule book.

在印度，谈论财政问题是令人鄙视的。十年前，ZF建立的法律体制帮助政治家们管理有方。如今，人们早已将其忘却。当前ZF在关键举措上总是莽撞行事。它对补助金实行的微调，于政策而言，可行度低；于财政而言，无关痛痒。ZF对著名机构1991年财政危机重蹈覆辙的警告欣然接受。事到如今，印度还是疲于行动，而2014年的全国大选只会让事态雪上加霜，到那时，积压已久的问题便会如火山喷发般涌出。但是如果奇丹巴拉姆在大选前就能将支出控制在借贷水平，他将成功保住印度的信用评级，还能改写整个政治界的规则手册。