6楼的，你的经济学造诣怎么这么深，能否提供点经验。谢谢了 zhangjy@mail.ecspc.com

真实经济周期理论是新古典经济学的第二代，是由理性预期理论发展而来的，代表人物有：基特兰德，普雷斯科特，巴罗。核心观点：引起经济波动的不是货币因素而是实际因素，将经济周期动态的解释为全部要素生产力的实际冲击与各个时期的生产可能性边界的互动反应，也就是在生产可能性边界和经济资源的约束下，经济个体追求利益最大化做出的决策对产出造成的变动。大体上我就知道这些，大家别见笑啊！

[此贴子已经被作者于2005-5-11 11:48:07编辑过]

今天早上检索了一下，找到了很多资料，其中就有这篇学位论文，里面用的模型和《Theory ahead of business cycle measurement》里面的模型及其相似，开心死了

万分感谢各位大侠，BOW ^_^

Basically the RBC model is based on stochastic growth model. Which of course is extended by including the household choice of leisure and work.

Prescott and Kydland (1982) proposed a model including time-to-build feature and unseperable leisure, this model fits the second moment of actual data very well except some labor market varialbes. Hansen(1985) introduced a indivisible labor and labor horading model to explain the high volatility of working hour. The later development of RBC includes addding more shocks, like government spending, or introduces distortionary taxex.

Marjor critic to RBC model includes: Cogley & Nason(?) point out that the RBC model is lack of propogation mechanism, all the autocorrelation and trend reverting feature comes almost wholy from the techonology shock, rather than endogenously generated by the model. Gali (1999) points out that the RBC model made wrong prediction of how techonoly shock affect the labor hour, labor productivity etc, he then preoposed a sticky price model and a SVAR, which empirically rejects the RBC prediction of the labor market dynamics.

And of course, the new Keynasian model, which emphasizes more on monetary shocks disagree with RBC model in the source of the economic fluctuation.