本人本科，下载下来，未征求楼主同意，在这里翻译了一下第一段。主要目的是学习一下英语和国际形势。如果楼主同意，我将继续翻译，希望大家指教，希望自己英语能更上一层楼。

The Vulnerability of Elites:
Geopolitical Risk in 2013

统治精英的脆弱:2013年地缘政治的危机

Categorizing the major themes, risks, opportunities, and wild cards—based on discussions of the Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk in Dubai, November 2012.基于2012年11月在迪拜的全球议程委员会的讨论,对关键主题、风险、机遇和无法预料的事进行归类。

Introduction
简介
In a post-financial crisis world, the lack of viable international leadership is in stark relief. 在后金融危机世界，可行的国际领导力的缺乏是完全明显的。As the Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk’s 2012 report highlighted, the effectiveness of global institutions and the rise of regionalism are overarching themes defining world events. 就像全球议程委员会关于2012年地缘政治的危机所强调的，“全球制度的有效性”和“区域主义的崛起”在定义世界性事件时成为支配性的主题。In 2013, this breakdown of international coordination will go increasingly local: in such a world, governments will focus more on their domestic agendas, which will create new risks in and of itself. 在2013年，国际协调的崩溃会导致更加地区化：在这样的世界里，（相比于国际的议程）ZF会对国内议程关注更多，这会产生ZF的新危机。Most importantly, the growing vulnerability of elites makes effective public and private leadership that much more difficult to sustain.更重要的是，国际中坚力量更加脆弱会造成有效的ZF领导力和个人领导力更加难以持续。Leaders of all kinds are becoming more vulnerable to their constituents, generating more reactive and short-term governance. 各种各样的领导会更容易受他们的委托人攻击，（因此）产生的是反应性的短期治理。Whether one looks at the dismal approval ratings of the U.S. Congress or the impact that more open flows of information is having on the Chinese ruling elite, it is clear that people are becoming more and more uninspired by their governments. 如果看看美国国会的低落的认可率，或者更加开放的信息流量对中国统治精英的影响，可以让我们更加清楚地认识到国民对他们的ZF越来越缺少创见。When it comes to unemployment, the widening disparity of wealth, or environmental degradation, highly complex or even intractable issues set politicians up for failure in the eyes of their constituents.当谈到失业、财富的两极分化或者环境的退化时，在选民的眼里，这些高度复杂或者棘手的问题为政治家们准备好了一场失败。