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2007-08-16

1. Market Wraps
US:
The Dow Jones Industrial Index contimued its five days continuous drop,opened at 13021.93,closed at 12861.47,with increased volumes.Nasdaq lost 40pts.Weighing on the market were the fears that Countrywide Financial------the largest US mortgage company,could face bankruptcy.But I believe the effects of woes is a bit exaggerated,since even it may affect some firms' expected revenue,it only accounts for a relatively small part(except firms like Countrywide),and because of the topic became the headline of newspapers,investors seems to act too much,which caused the recent world wide down of share markets.

China:
上证指数今日低开,全天宽幅震荡,最后下跌104。43点,报收于4765。45。共487家上涨,61家平盘,392家下跌。值得注意的是,今天权重股集体调整,几乎全线下落,作为前几日的指标股拉升技术性回落,风险基本释放。有色金属板块在3天的调整后,今天集体上行,除区特别疲软的个股外,普遍上升1%以上。从经验上讲,如果明天继续上行,有色板热点会再现。但如果明天回落,那有色板就会和前期的煤炭板一样,步入获利回吐的调整期。

2.Broker's view:
天相投资认为,受到高位估值压力,5000点重要的心理及技术,以及全球股市回调的影响,市场仍需蓄势后再挑战新高。招商证券认为,“二八”现象转为“八二”现象,个股行情活跃但热点较为散乱。从成交量的情况来看,增量资金入市仍较为谨慎。笔者认为,市场的成交量在基本面转好之后有所放大,但与前期相比(6月22日之前)依然有较大差距,有相当多的场外资金在此后没有介入,在估值基本见顶的情况下,从资金推动来看,依然存在空间。
第一批6000亿元特别国债近期将随时发行,较具体的发行时间初定为下周。这批国债将从账面上由农行“过手”,期限可能为10年和15年,利率预计分别为4.3%和4.45%,比较贴近市场水平。权威人士透露,特别国债将分三批发行,首批为6000亿元。由于法律规定央行不能直接认购、包销国债,因此特别国债将以农行为中间机构进行“过手”,从而间接达到央行持有的目的。之所以选择农行,主要是因为该行未进行股改上市,进行“过手”程序相对简单。从发行到“过手”将在一天内完成,不涉及巨额资金清算的问题。
证监会公布《公司债发行试点办法》,标志我国公司债发行的正式启动。招商证券认为,受股票市场,加息周期,以及交易场所限制,公司债的发行将受到严峻挑战,从短期看,不会对分流股市资金造成明显的影响。

3.shares commended

4.Exchange rate:
USD rose against most major currencies.AUD/USD fell to 0.7903,the lowest since March .It's a bit strange that from the US bonds market,the yields is eased ,which means the market hopes the Fed could cut rate next year.
In LME,all the base metals' price fell .Crude oil,inluding Tapis,Brent and WTI,all went up.

5.Technical analysis:
From weekly analysis,the A-share index broke 4613 with increased volume,which means this level will become a strong support in the future.From daily view,using Fibonacci retracement(setting 3404 to 4337 as the range),it perfectly matches at every important numbers.Today's closing index is a relative strong support level.

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