A Chinese Century? Maybe It’s the Next One

By LESTER THUROW
Published: August 19, 2007

CHINA claims that its economy is growing at 10 to 11 percent a year, and China’s official analysts say that their nation will catch up with the United States long before the 22nd century arrives. Don’t believe it.

中国声称其每年的经济增长速度在10％～11％之间，中国的官方分析师说，在22世纪到来之前，他们国家就会赶上美国。不要相信。

First, let’s deal with the implausibility of the official Chinese statistics. Mathematically, if the overall economy were to grow 10 percent annually, and the 70 percent of the economy that is based in rural areas were not growing (as stated by the Chinese government), the economy in China’s cities would have to be growing by 33 percent a year. The urban economy is growing rapidly, but not at a 33 percent pace.

首先，让我们来分析一下令人难以置信的中国官方统计数据。从数学计算来看，如果中国的经济总量以每年10%的速度增长，并且占经济总量70％的农村地区没有增长（据中国政府声明），那么中国城市地区的经济就必须以每年33％的速度增长。尽管中国城市地区的经济增长迅速，但还没有达到33％的程度。

Furthermore, Chinese statistics conflict with those of Hong Kong, the semiautonomous territory that serves as the financial capital of much of southern China. In 2001, Hong Kong had a recession, which is to say that it reported that its gross domestic product fell. Guangdong, the adjacent Chinese province, has a population of around 200 million. In 2001, it reported that its G.D.P. grew by 10 percent. What are the chances that both of those numbers are correct? Very slim.

其次，中国官方的统计数据与香港——这个为中国大部分南方地区提供金融资本的半自治领土——的统计数据有冲突。 2001年香港经济不景气，据报道其地区生产总值下降了不少。紧邻的中国广东省，约有２亿人口，据报道2001年它的GDP增长10％。这两个数据都是对的可能性有多大？很小。

Economic growth rates can be inferred from electricity consumption. In every country in the world, electricity use has generally grown faster than the G.D.P. Electricity is necessary for nearly all productive activities, and because of inefficiencies, consumption of electricity has generally outstripped economic growth. Rising energy costs have resulted in more efficient use of electricity, but especially in the developing world, economic growth has still generally lagged growth in electricity.

经济增长率可以从电力消耗中推断出来。世界上的每个国家，用电量的增长通常高于GDP的增长。几乎所有的生产活动都需要使用电力，由于用电效率低，电力消耗的增长通常高于经济增长。尽管能源成本的上涨已经使得用电效率提高，但是经济增长率通常仍低于电力消耗的增长，发展中国家尤其如此。

But if China’s official numbers are to be believed, there are provinces in China where the G.D.P. has been growing faster than energy use. That is unlikely, since the central government’s statistics also say that energy use per unit of G.D.P. is going up — not down, as claimed in provincial G.D.P. statistics.

如果中国官方的数据可信，那么中国有些省份的GDP增长就会高于能源消耗的增长。这不大可能，因为中央政府的统计数据也说单位GDP耗能在增加，而不是下降，各省的情况也是如此。

Among the world’s 12 most rapidly growing economies over the last 10 years, the G.D.P. has grown only 45 percent as fast as electricity consumption. In the early 1970s, Japan was shutting down its electricity-guzzling aluminum industry. During this period, the G.D.P. grew 60 percent as fast as electricity consumption, the highest recorded level among industrialized nations.

过去10年世界上经济增长最快的12个经济体，GDP的增长只有电力消耗增长的45%。上世纪70年代初，日本关闭了高耗电的电解铝企业，那时日本的GDP增长率为电力消耗增长的60％，这是工业化国家的最高记录。

Using those numbers as a guide, if we consider China’s actual electrical use, which is relatively easy to measure, and do a little math, we come up with this estimate: The G.D.P. in China has been growing somewhere between 4.5 percent (using the average for a rapidly growing country) to 6 percent a year (using the highest rate for Japan), not at the 10 percent rate claimed in official statistics.

以这些数据为指导，如我们考虑相对容易计算的中国实际电力消耗，做几道数学题，那么我们可以作出这样的估计：每年中国GDP增长在4.5％(采用一个快速发展的国家的平均数据)～6%之间，而不是官方宣称的10％。

The official statistic for China’s overall growth rate is best regarded as an approximate growth rate of the economy of its cities.

最好把中国经济总量增长的官方统计数据看作中国城市经济增长的大概数据。

China also officially claims that it will catch up with the United States and become the world’s largest economy well before the 22nd century arrives.

中国官方声称将在22世纪到来之前赶上美国，成为世界上最大的经济体。

There is an equally simple reason that neither of these predictions is likely to be realized. It simply takes more than 100 years for a large, less economically developed country to catch up with the world leader in per capita income. One need look only at the history of the United States, which had a much higher growth rate than Britain in the 19th century, yet did not catch up until World War I. Or consider Japan and the United States. Some 150 years after Japan started to modernize during the Meiji restoration, the country’s per capita G.D.P. is still only 80 percent of that of the United States in terms of purchasing power parity — although, in nominal terms, it has caught up.

这些预言一个都不会实现，道理很简单。一个经济落后的大国要在人均收入上赶上世界头号强国，绝对需要花100多年的时间。你只要看看美国的历史：美国19世纪的经济增长远高于英国，也要到第一次世界大战才赶上英国。或者考虑日本和美国：自明治维新日本开始现代化后大约150年，按照购买力折算，它的人均GDP仍然只有美国的80％——尽管名义上它已经赶上美国了。

The United States is not standing still. In fact, its per capita income grew faster than nearly all other big countries from 1990 to 2007. Europe’s per capita income fell from 85 percent of that of the United States in 1990 to 66 percent in 2007, according to International Monetary Fund statistics.

美国不是就此止步。实事上，从1990年到2007年美国的人均收入增长几乎比其它大国都快。根据国际货币基金组织的统计数据，欧洲国家的人均收入已从1990年占美国的85%降至2007年的66%。

So let’s say that the inflation-adjusted growth rate for China is 4 percent a year. This is optimistic, because China will certainly have some bad years in the next century. Every country does — remember the Great Depression in the United States. A 4 percent rate is faster than any big country has ever grown for 100 years. But assume that China can do it. Assume, too, that America grows at the 3 percent rate it has averaged for the last 15 years.

因为让我们假定中国的经济增长在通货膨胀调整后为每年4%。这已经是很乐观，因为中国在今后一个世纪肯定会有一些经济不景气的年份。每个国家都是如此——不要忘了美国发生过的大萧条。4%的增长率已经快于任何一个大国在过去100年的增长。但假设中国能够做到。又假设美国以过去15年的平均数据3%增长。

Now project the two growth rates forward: the inflation-adjusted per-capita G.D.P. of China would be less than $40,000 in 2100, versus almost $650,000 in the United States. That’s because China starts at $1,000 per capita and the United States at $43,000. If, in 2100, China has four times as many people as the United States, as it does now, China would still not have a total G.D.P. equal to America’s.

现在来分析这两个增长率：到2100年中国的人均GDP在通货膨胀调整后会少于4万美元，美国的几乎达65万美元。这是因为中国的起点是人均1千美元，美国起点则是人均4.3万美元。如果到2100年，中国的人口仍像现在一样是美国的四倍，它的GDP总量仍然赶不上美国。

But it is unlikely to have four times as many people. It is always a mistake to project population growth rates for a century, but let’s do it anyway: With a one-child policy and a sex ratio that favors boys (many men won’t find wives) — China should experience a decline in population in the 21st century. Yet let’s assume for a moment that China’s population remains constant, at 1.3 billion. If immigration to the United States continued at the current rate, America’s population would rise. If the population grew at 1 percent a year, as it has recently, it would more than double by 2100, reducing the enormous population gap between the two countries. Are these projections likely to be realized? Who knows?

但届时中国的人口不太可能是美国的4倍。预测一个世纪的人口增长始终是个错误，但无论如何还是让我们试一下：因为一家只生一个孩子的政策和男女性别比例严重失调（很多男人将取不到老婆），中国会在21世纪经历人口减少。尽管如此，让我们假设中国仍然保持13亿人口。如果移民美国的人口继续保持目前的速度，美国的人口会增长。如果美国的人口保持每年1%的增长，就像最近几年一样，那么到2100年人口会比现在的两倍还多。这些预测会成为现实吗？天晓得！

What is clear is that China is unlikely to surpass the United States in G.D.P. in absolute or relative terms anytime soon.

可以肯定的是，不管按照绝对数据还是按照相对数据，中国的GDP都不可能很快超过美国的。

There may be a Chinese century, but it will be the 22nd century — not the 21st.

也许会出现一个中国世纪，也许是22世纪——但绝不是21世纪。