最近在看卡尼曼的PROSPECT THEORY 1979(263~292)
有个不明白的地方,还请大家指教:
关于PROBABILISTIC INSURANCE(这个……怎么翻译比较好?)的270页
In contrast to these data, expected utility theory (with a concave u) implies that probabilistic insurance is superior to regular insurance. That is, if at asset position w one is just willing to pay a premium y to insure against a probability p of losing x, then one should definitely be willing to pay a smaller premium ry to reduce the probability of losing x from p to (1 - r)p, 0 < r < 1. Formally, if one is indifferent between (w -x, p; w, 1 -p) and (w - y), then one should prefer probabilistic insurance (w -x, (1 - r)p; w - y, rp; w - ry, 1 -p) over regular insurance (w - y).
To prove this proposition, we show that
pu ( w - x ) + ( l - p ) u ( w ) = u ( w -y ) (1)
implies
(1-r)pu(w -x)+rpu(w -y)+(l-p)u(w-ry)>u(w -y). ???由(1)可以得到这个么?这个不是要证明的结论么?
Without loss of generality, we can set u(w -x) = 0 and u(w) = 1. Hence, u(w - y) = 1 -p, and we wish to show that
rp(1-p)+(1-p)u(w-ry)>1-p or u(w-ry)>1-rp 结论证明什么了?没看明白。
which holds if and only if u is concave.
这段证明不是很明白,请解释一下。还有为什么根据预期效用理论PROBABILISTIC INSURANCE比常规保险更好,因为人们风险回避?
本人对行为金融学很感兴趣,但是苦于自身所学粗浅,才刚刚入门,所以问题难免幼稚,希望各位大大能耐心讲解,谢谢~