中信证券-房地产行业专题报告之一：

“世界地产看中国 中国机会在一线”

15页 10.09

􀂙 世界房地产业当看中国。从全球的角度来看，主流国家的房地产业或处
在衰退之后的调整期，或已经越过行业景气的拐点，只有中国的房地产开
发业在经济增长、城市化、人口红利推动下爆发出勃勃生机，这正是培育
一流房地产企业的基础。
􀂙 周期定位的四重困境。本轮房地产周期不是对1992 至1996 年周期的简单
重复，和世界各国的房地产景气也有多有不同。中国特殊的国情、产业生
态环境和驱动行业成长因素的差异使这一轮房地产周期缺乏可比的实例

目 录
前言：我们处在周期的什么位置··················································································································································1
世界地产，瞩目中国······································································································································································1
周期定位，四重困境······································································································································································3
跃进年代，行业共性······································································································································································5
两岸比较，周期初判······································································································································································5
假设条件，周期研判······································································································································································9
插图目录
图1：固定资产住宅投资完成额占GDP 比重 ..................................................................................................................2
图2：香港、台湾房屋竣工指标...............................................................................................................................................2
图3：美国、英国房屋竣工指标...............................................................................................................................................2
图4：1998 年后中国房地产行业稳健跃进...............................................................................................................................3
图5：各国房地产企业主营业务收入来源比较........................................................................................................................4
图6：美国房地产房地产行业周期...........................................................................................................................................5
图7：日本房地产行业周期.......................................................................................................................................................6
表3：亚洲各国房地产周期一览...............................................................................................................................................6
图8：台湾房地产行业的成长...................................................................................................................................................8
图9：台湾房地产行业周期详解...............................................................................................................................................8
图10：1994 年以来我国房价涨幅............................................................................................................................................9
图11：各国近年房价涨幅参考.................................................................................................................................................9
图12：高速城市化的进程.......................................................................................................................................................10
图13：人口红利.......................................................................................................................................................................11
图14：人均住宅面积调整（按常住人口计算的使用面积） ................................................................................................11
图15：从孵化到持续成长—内地房地产市场如日中天........................................................................................................12
表格目录
表1：房地产开发行业生态国际比较 ...................................................................................................................................2
表2：中美两国影响房地产行业景气因素比较........................................................................................................................4
表3：2005 年各地区城镇人均住宅建筑面积情况 .............................................................................................................11

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-10-11 7:21:28编辑过]