中信证券：“世界地产看中国 中国机会在一线”

—房地产行业专题报告之二：对中国当前房价的深层思考

10.09      39页

􀂙 房价之争是一场利益之争。房价直接影响开发商的利润和购房者的利益。
地方政府、中央政府、银行等也和房地产市场紧密相连。各利益主体很难
形成共赢，因此围绕“房价”这个敏感的利益载体的争论还将持续存在。
􀂙 房价略高，上涨略快，结构性泡沫初显。最近2 年，北京、深圳等地区
的房价同比上涨都超过20%，2007 年以来甚至超过了40%，相当于香港
房地产泡沫破裂前的水平。我们认为，以北京为代表的部分区域房价上涨
偏快，结构性泡沫初

 

目 录
房价上涨背后的逻辑······································································································································································1
不得不说的房价···············································································································································································3
房价高不高，房价上涨快不快？ ··················································································································································4
房价收入比···········································································································································································4
房价租金比···········································································································································································4
空置率··················································································································································································5
房价涨速··············································································································································································5
房价为什么会上涨？ ······································································································································································7
成本推动··············································································································································································7
成本推动——地价高···························································································································································8
成本推动——拆迁成本高···················································································································································9
成本推动——资金成本高·················································································································································10
成本推动——税费高·························································································································································12
成本推动——垄断属性，转嫁成本··································································································································12
供应短缺············································································································································································13
供应短缺——土地供应·····················································································································································13
供应短缺——囤积土地·····················································································································································15
供应短缺——开发效率缓慢·············································································································································15
供应短缺——房地产供应时滞··········································································································································15
供应短缺——二手房市场不能带来大量新的供应···········································································································16
需求拉动············································································································································································17
需求拉动——自住需求·····················································································································································17
需求推动——投资需求·····················································································································································21
按揭贷款支持——需求向有效需求转化的关键··············································································································24
垄断属性——非竞争性市场定价机理······························································································································25
地产何去何从、政策面临抉择····················································································································································25
成也政策，败也政策——功过参半的改革······················································································································25
历年政府如何调控房地产·················································································································································26
调控的难点在哪里？ ·························································································································································28
调控如期而至，行业持续成长··········································································································································32