瑞银（ubs） 投资策略  亚洲电信业主题报告 Asian Telecom Themes

话务量提高是回报股东的方式 ---   Selling minutes to create shareholder value

2007年11月19日 发布，PDF格式，共48页

􀂄 Minutes-based approach is essential, in our view
Low affordability levels coupled with low subscriber acquisition costs lead us to
believe that a minutes-based approach is an appropriate way to compare emerging
market mobile operators. Operators such as Bharti Airtel and China Mobile have
continued to deliver shareholder value in 2007 despite rising competition. We
believe investors that decided not to invest in these stocks may have
underestimated the price elasticity of demand and economies of scale benefits in
the minutes business. We have developed a minutes scorecard for evaluating Asian
emerging market telcos using KPIs such as revenue per minute, cost per minute,
capex per minute, percentage of non-voice revenue, capital productivity, and ROE.
􀂄 Bharti, China Mobile, PLDT, Telkom Indonesia, and Idea rank high
We find market leaders in emerging mobile markets rank high in our minutes
scorecard, reflecting their ability to take advantage of rising consumption, elasticity
of demand, and economies of scale to create shareholder value. We have stated in
earlier reports our belief that emerging market mobile operators should be viewed
as proxies for rising consumption in some of the world’s fastest growing
economies.
􀂄 Our growth bias remains
Our Asian telecom strategy in 2007 has leaned towards growth markets such as
China, India, and Indonesia, characterised by large populations, strong economic
growth, and under-penetrated mobile markets. China Mobile, Bharti Airtel, Idea
Cellular, PLDT, and Telkom Indonesia—the market leaders in emerging mobile
markets—remain our top picks, despite their solid outperformance.