Financial markets seem to have gotten terribly complicated - or have they?

Expect policy makers to respond aggressively to signs of further distress.

With growth set to slow more sharply, we see the ECB cutting to 3¼% by year-end.

The first half of this year could prove to be a watershed for the economy.

We expect central banks to focus more on slowing growth than rising inflation.

Recent fast growth plus poor regulation make for vulnerability to external shocks.

Approaching heavy refinery maintenance and softening fundamentals suggest so.