Asia Ex-Japan Weekly Economic Monitor (Total 88 pages)  

GLOBAL LETTER: TRICHET'S DILEMMA

With the Fed now focused on downside growth risks, the ECB faces a difficult choice: remain focused on domestic inflation risks or take a cue from the Fed on growth.

OVERVIEW: TWEAKING OUR BANK OF KOREA CALL

The new government's pro-growth agenda should lower the hurdle for a rate cut.

PREVIEW: THE WEEK AHEAD

In China, we expect GDP growth to fall by almost 1pp due to a smaller contribution from trade. Meanwhile, Chinese CPI inflation should moderate from the 11-year high in November, largely due to a base effect. In South Korea, GDP growth likely rose further in Q4 2007, driven by strong export growth, but more timely indicators are softening.

ASIA OUTLOOK: FIVE THEMES AND THREE RISKS

For our core view of a soft landing for the global economy, we highlight five key themes.

CHINA OUTLOOK: THE UNMASKING OF OVERCAPACITY

An export-led slowdown could reveal the severity of overcapacity in China.

INDIA OUTLOOK: SEEING THROUGH THE SOFT PATCH

With the right reforms, India can achieve a potential economic growth rate of 10%.

KOREA OUTLOOK: SHIFTING DOWN A GEAR

We doubt that domestic demand can fully offset slowing exports in 2008.

AUSTRALIA OUTLOOK: DELAYED REACTION

Strong momentum in domestic spending growth is unlikely to last.

[此贴子已经被angelboy于2008-7-29 15:15:13编辑过]