文件类型:PDF

页数:67

发表机构:Asia Development Bank,Office of Regional Economic Integration

The Asia Economic Monitor (AEM) is a semiannual
review of emerging East Asia’s growth, financial vulnerability, and emerging policy issues. It covers the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations; People’s Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; and Taipei,China.

The PRC economy grew 10.4% in the first half of 2008, slower than the 12.2% in the second half of 2007. Investment and consumption maintained strong. Capital inflows, particularly short-term and speculative, had accelerated on expectations for further RMB appreciation, given the $281 billion increase in foreign exchange reserves in the first half of 2008. The financial account surplus was 2.3% of GDP in 2007.

Contents
Recent Economic Performance 3
Growth and Inflation 3
Balance of Payments 8
Financial Markets and Exchange Rates 11
Monetary and Fiscal Policy 13
Assessment of Financial Vulnerability 17
Economic Outlook for 2008 and 2009, Risks, and Policy Issues 24
External Economic Environment 24
Regional Economic Outlook 32
Risks to the Outlook 37
Policy Issues 41
Special Section
Dealing with Inflation: Policy Options for Emerging East Asia 48
Boxes
1. Viet Nam—Wake-up Call for Emerging East Asia? 15
2. Record Oil Prices—Are They Justified? 29
3. Food and Commodity Price Inflation—Here to Stay? 54
4. Effective Monetary Policy Depends on Credibility 66

[此贴子已经被作者于2008-7-24 10:20:53编辑过]