A value of 5 from MQL for the between cluster variance (Uoj I am guessing?) is massize for a logistic regression and would suggest huge between cluster effects - almost as if the extra waves give little or no added value as people cycling in wave 1 continue and vice versa. I'd suggest taking a look at my paper from 2006 with David Draper in Bayesian Analysis (on method comparison for these models). We looked at a dataset used by Rodriguez and Goldman and they have also published comparing methods on the same scenario of large between cluster variance and small numbers of level 1 observations per level 2.
When working out predictive probabilities one should be wary that multilevel models give subject specific estimates as opposed to population averaged although one can convert them (see the MLwiN manual binary response chapter).

Hope this helps,

William Browne