使用eviews软件估算garch模型参数为负，求教大神

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收藏 2014-04-05

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使用eviews软件估算garch模型，得到下面结果，resid（-1）参数是负数，不知道正常么？到处都介绍应该为正啊。
真心求教，另预测条件方差、条件均值第一个都是NA，不知道正常么？怎么处理

Dependent Variable: R
Method: ML - ARCH (Marquardt) - Normal distribution
Date: 04/05/14 Time: 22:56
Sample (adjusted): 2 210
Included observations: 209 after adjustments
Convergence achieved after 16 iterations
Presample variance: backcast (parameter = 0.7)
GARCH = C(2) + C(3)RESID(-1)^2 + C(4)GARCH(-1) + C(5)*GARCH(-2)


Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	z-Statistic	Prob.


C	-0.000865	0.000419	-2.061826	0.0392


	Variance Equation


C	1.25E-07	3.80E-07	0.327548	0.7433
RESID(-1)^2	-0.025917	0.083962	-0.308671	0.7576
GARCH(-1)	0.721215	3.435289	0.209943	0.8337
GARCH(-2)	0.285993	3.461087	0.082631	0.9341


R-squared	-0.000311	Mean dependent var		-0.001002
Adjusted R-squared	-0.000311	S.D. dependent var		0.007811
S.E. of regression	0.007812	Akaike info criterion		-7.128472
Sum squared resid	0.012694	Schwarz criterion		-7.048512
Log likelihood	749.9253	Hannan-Quinn criter.		-7.096144
Durbin-Watson stat	2.001099