最新BIS研究（2014.3）发现外汇干预会改变银行资产负债表的组成结构，被动地增加了信贷，减弱了货币政策的独立性。联系到近期中国整体经济增长放缓，以及由央行主导的人民币贬值，该篇文章有较强的现实意义。




Foreign exchange intervention and the banking system balance sheet in emerging market economies

Blaise Gadanecz, Aaron Mehrotra and M S Mohanty

Abstract
Large-scale forex intervention in emerging market economies (EMEs) aimed at resisting currency appreciation has major implications for the composition of banking system balance sheets. The domestic monetary consequences depend on the nature of central bank liabilities that are the counterpart of forex reserves. Even
if the immediate change in bank reserves due to FX intervention is offset by the sale of securities, bank lending may still be stimulated, running counter to the aims of the monetary authority.

In this paper, we empirically investigate the impact of banks’ holdings of liquid government securities, generated by such intervention, on bank credit in a panel of EMEs. We find that, for well capitalised banking systems, holdings of government and central bank paper over time lead to an expansion in their credit to the private sector. This result is confirmed at both country and bank level. The balance sheet effects of large-scale FX intervention therefore require close attention.



我发过的其他帖子：
IMF 世界经济展望 - 2014.1
IMF 世界经济展望 - 2014.4
IMF: 新常态下的货币政策 (Monetary Policy in the New Normal)
IMF 欧元区：通货紧缩or低通胀？
IMF: 财政监测报告（英文版100页） 2014Q1
IMF: 全球金融稳定报告（英文版184页） 2014Q1

瑞信: 页岩革命（The Shale Revolution I & II，英文版，共343页）
瑞信 全球经济季刊 2014.3 - Speeding up to Average
Credit Suisse (瑞信) 中国宏观策略 - 2014.3

BIS 亚太地区的贸易与通胀全球化
BIS 新兴市场国家的外汇干预和银行资产负债表