fantuanxiaot 发表于 2014-8-10 19:30 
你的这些变量取对数后,有一个变量是平稳的,有一些变量是一阶差分平稳的和二阶差分平稳的,而协整只能相同 ...
不一定要一个被解释变量对应多个解释变量做协整吗?你的意思是可以单纯变量之间做协整是吗?我的二阶差分有平稳吗,具体要怎么判断?二阶差分中有的p值大于0.05,调整的可决系数小于0.5,那二阶差分序列还是平稳的吗?如下:
Null Hypothesis: D(LNX3,2) has a unit root
Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 2 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=3)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.898486 0.0085
Test critical values: 1% level -2.816740
5% level -1.982344
10% level -1.601144
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20 observations
and may not be accurate for a sample size of 10
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LNX3,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/10/14 Time: 12:11
Sample (adjusted): 2003 2012
Included observations: 10 after adjustments
Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(LNX3(-1),2) -2.072170 0.714914 -2.898486 0.0230
D(LNX3(-1),3) 0.999895 0.582816 1.715626 0.1299
D(LNX3(-2),3) 0.652170 0.435399 1.497868 0.1778
R-squared 0.568711 Mean dependent var -0.006859
Adjusted R-squared 0.445486 S.D. dependent var 0.052588
S.E. of regression 0.039160 Akaike info criterion -3.399002
Sum squared resid 0.010734 Schwarz criterion -3.308226
Log likelihood 19.99501 Hannan-Quinn criter. -3.498582
Durbin-Watson stat 1.366506